Winlytics.AI
Full time
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
13th · 4 pts·WLDL
vs
—
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
8th · 7 pts·LWDW
The story

Mid-table rivals seek momentum after contrasting opening displays

Separated only by goal difference, 1. FC Köln and Werder Bremen meet at the RheinEnergieStadion with both clubs aiming to close the one-point gap to the continental qualification places.

Match news & current form

1. FC Köln sit 11th with three points after two matches. René Wagner’s side experienced a polarising start to the campaign, following up a thrilling 3-2 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim with a heavy 4-1 defeat away to VfB Stuttgart last time out. Wagner will be looking for a response from a back four that struggled under pressure in Stuttgart, though the team has shown consistent scoring form across their pre-season and early league fixtures.

Werder Bremen occupy 10th place, also on three points, following a significant 3-1 win over RB Leipzig. That result provided a vital boost for head coach Daniel Thioune after his side opened the season with a 4-1 loss to SC Freiburg. Bremen have shown they can control possession but remain prone to physical battles, having committed 12 more fouls than Köln across their recent outings.

Head-to-head history

The most recent encounter in April 2026 saw Köln secure a 3-1 home victory. While Bremen won the meeting prior to that 1-0 in early 2024, the fixture has been historically tight, featuring two 1-1 draws in their last five competitive clashes.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Köln’s 4-1 loss to Stuttgart snapped a three-match winning streak across all competitions.
  • Werder Bremen’s 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig ended a two-game losing slump.
  • Both teams have conceded exactly five goals and scored four across their opening two Bundesliga matches.
  • Bremen have averaged significantly higher passing volumes than Köln (1432 vs 1293) in recent games, suggesting they may look to dictate the tempo away from home.
Key players & missing men

Niclas Füllkrug remains the focal point for Bremen, having netted twice in his last three appearances. For the hosts, René Wagner relies on a 4-2-3-1 system where the playmaker behind the striker has also found the net twice in three games. Köln are without T. Hubers, S. El Mala, S. Sebulonsen, and L. Waldschmidt. Werder Bremen travel without F. Agu, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, and K. Topp.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on 1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
1. FC Köln2.3
–
1.3Werder Bremen
Season average total: 3.50 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
35%
35%
30%
1. FC Köln winDrawWerder Bremen win
Market call
Winner : 1. FC Köln
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

1. FC Köln
1568
Werder Bremen
1606

Werder Bremen are the stronger side — 38 rating points clear of 1. FC Köln.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
2.17
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.15
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

1. FC Köln1. FC KölnWerder BremenWerder Bremen
1.50Goals scored / game2.00
2.25Goals conceded / game2.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — 1. FC Köln 4 games, Werder Bremen 4 games.

1. FC Köln1. FC KölnWerder BremenWerder Bremen
0%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

1. FC Köln
1–1
Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
3–1
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
1–1
1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
0–1
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
2–1
1. FC Köln
Form check

Their recent form.

1. FC Köln
1. FC Köln
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 1D · 2L
Hamburger SVv1. FC Köln
2–1
L
1. FC KölnvWerder Bremen
1–1
D
VfB Stuttgartv1. FC Köln
4–1
L
1. FC Kölnv1899 Hoffenheim
3–2
W
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 1L
Werder BremenvFC Augsburg
3–2
W
1. FC KölnvWerder Bremen
1–1
D
Werder BremenvRB Leipzig
3–1
W
SC FreiburgvWerder Bremen
4–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0