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Eliteserien (Norway)
·
Aalesund
Aalesund
14th · 21 pts·DLWLW
vs
Valerenga
Valerenga
12th · 23 pts·DLDLD
The story

Aalesund fight for survival as Valerenga eye Europe

Aalesund arrive at the Intility Arena desperate for points to escape the relegation zone, while Valerenga look to bridge the four-point gap to the European places.

Match news & current form

Aalesund sit 15th in the table with 14 games remaining to save their season. While they are without a win in their last five, they have become difficult to beat, recording three draws in that period against Ham-Kam, Viking, and Molde. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw away at Ham-Kam, showing a defensive stability that was missing during their heavier defeats earlier in the summer.

Valerenga occupy 10th place and remain within touching distance of the top four, but their momentum has stalled. They have suffered three defeats in their last five matches, including a 1-2 loss to Bodo/Glimt and a 0-3 humbling by Ham-Kam. Despite a massive 6-1 win over Aalesund in the reverse fixture, their recent 0-4 loss to Tromso suggests a vulnerability that the visitors will look to target.

Head-to-head history

Valerenga have dominated this fixture recently, winning the last five meetings between the two sides. Aalesund are currently winless in their last 10 encounters with Valerenga, but the visitors' improved form in holding top-half teams to draws suggests they are closer to breaking that streak than the historical record implies.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Aalesund have drawn three of their last five matches, including games against two of the league's top sides.
  • Valerenga have scored at least one goal in each of their last eight meetings with Aalesund.
  • Aalesund have found the net in their last 18 consecutive matches across all competitions.
  • Valerenga have lost three of their last six matches, failing to score in two of those defeats.
Key players & missing men

Aalesund travel with a significant injury list, missing P. Ngongo, J. Seehusen, P. Aukland, and A. Kjelsen. Valerenga are also hampered by absences, with H. Bjordal, F. Ambina, M. Sjoeng, and M. Westergaard all unavailable for this clash, potentially weakening their spine and goalkeeping options.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Aalesund vs Valerenga and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Aalesund2.2
1.9Valerenga
Season average total: 4.08 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Aalesund winDrawValerenga win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Valerenga
Goals forecast
Over 1.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Aalesund
1291
Valerenga
1377

Valerenga are the stronger side — 86 rating points clear of Aalesund.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AalesundAalesundValerengaValerenga
1.57Goals scored / game1.62
2.19Goals conceded / game2.05
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Aalesund 21 games, Valerenga 21 games.

AalesundAalesundValerengaValerenga
5%Games with a clean sheet10%
10%Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Aalesund
5–5
Valerenga
Valerenga
6–1
Aalesund
Valerenga
4–1
Aalesund
Aalesund
0–2
Valerenga
Valerenga
3–1
Aalesund
Form check

Their recent form.

Aalesund
Aalesund
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
MoldevAalesund
1–2
W
KFUM OslovAalesund
2–1
L
AalesundvStart
2–0
W
VikingvAalesund
2–1
L
AalesundvValerenga
5–5
D
Valerenga
Valerenga
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
ValerengavFredrikstad
1–1
D
LillestromvValerenga
2–0
L
Sarpsborg 08 FFvValerenga
2–2
D
ValerengavMolde
3–4
L
AalesundvValerenga
5–5
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eliteserien (Norway) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
VikingViking
21
16
2
3
+34
50
2
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt
21
16
2
3
+34
50
3
TromsoTromso
21
11
5
5
+11
38
4
MoldeMolde
21
11
3
7
+12
36
5
RosenborgRosenborg
21
10
3
8
+9
33
6
LillestromLillestrom
21
10
2
9
-1
32
7
BrannBrann
21
9
2
10
+7
29
8
FredrikstadFredrikstad
21
8
4
9
-7
28
9
Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
21
6
7
8
-5
25
10
KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo
21
7
4
10
-10
25
11
SandefjordSandefjord
21
6
5
10
-6
23
12
ValerengaValerenga
21
6
5
10
-9
23
13
Ham-KamHam-Kam
21
6
5
10
-15
23
14
AalesundAalesund
21
4
9
8
-13
21
15
Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK
21
5
4
12
-19
19
16
StartStart
21
4
4
13
-22
16