Winlytics.AI
Full time
Superliga (Denmark)
·
Aarhus
Aarhus
11th · 5 pts·LLDLD
vs
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
2nd · 19 pts·DWDWD
The story

Midtjylland seek top-four consolidation against struggling Aarhus

Aarhus fight to bridge a four-point gap to the European places while Midtjylland look to cement their continental standing following a successful week on the European stage.

Match news & current form

Aarhus enter this clash in 10th place, desperate to kickstart a season that has yielded just three points so far. Their momentum is stalling after successive defeats, including a 1-2 loss at Randers FC and a European exit at the hands of Benfica. Sitting four points adrift of the European spots with 17 games remaining, the pressure is mounting on the hosts to find their first win in six attempts.

FC Midtjylland are enjoying a contrast in fortunes, currently 5th and holding a continental qualification spot. They travel to Aarhus buoyed by a 4-1 away win at Rijeka that secured their progress in the Conference League. Domestically, they remain unbeaten in five matches, most recently drawing 1-1 with Silkeborg following a first-half strike from Kirk.

Head-to-head history

Midtjylland have historically dominated this fixture, winning 27 of the 51 official meetings compared to just 12 for Aarhus. The visitors also hold a significant goal-scoring advantage in the rivalry, having outscored Aarhus 86 to 55 over their competitive history.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Aarhus have failed to win any of their last five Superliga matches.
  • FC Midtjylland are currently on a five-game unbeaten streak in the league.
  • Six of the last seven head-to-head meetings between these sides have seen fewer than 11 total corners.
  • Aarhus have seen both teams score in 11 of their last 12 competitive fixtures.
  • Midtjylland have scored in every away league match so far this season.
Key players & missing men

Dario Osorio and Iheanacho have been the recent catalysts for Midtjylland, both netting crucial goals in the last fortnight. However, the visitors travel with a significant injury list including Bak, Diao, Emefile, Erlic, Gogorza, and Junior Brumado. Aarhus are equally depleted, missing key defensive figures F. Tingager and N. Poulsen, alongside Gyamfi, Haugstrup, Kristjansson, and Links.

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We have published a signal on Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Aarhus1.1
1.7FC Midtjylland
Season average total: 2.80 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Aarhus winDrawFC Midtjylland win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or FC Midtjylland
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Aarhus
1583
FC Midtjylland
1687

FC Midtjylland are the stronger side — 105 rating points clear of Aarhus.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AarhusAarhusFC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland
1.22Goals scored / game1.89
1.89Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Aarhus 9 games, FC Midtjylland 9 games.

AarhusAarhusFC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland
0%Games with a clean sheet22%
22%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Aarhus
0–2
FC Midtjylland
Aarhus
0–0
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
2–1
Aarhus
FC Midtjylland
1–1
Aarhus
Aarhus
0–1
FC Midtjylland
Form check

Their recent form.

Aarhus
Aarhus
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
AC HorsensvAarhus
2–2
D
FC NordsjaellandvAarhus
2–0
L
AarhusvSilkeborg
2–2
D
AarhusvFC Midtjylland
0–2
L
Randers FCvAarhus
2–1
L
FC Midtjylland
FC Midtjylland
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
OdensevFC Midtjylland
1–1
D
FC MidtjyllandvBrondby
4–1
W
FC MidtjyllandvFC Nordsjaelland
2–2
D
AarhusvFC Midtjylland
0–2
W
SilkeborgvFC Midtjylland
1–1
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Superliga (Denmark) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC CopenhagenFC Copenhagen
9
8
0
1
+15
24
2
FC MidtjyllandFC Midtjylland
9
5
4
0
+8
19
3
ViborgViborg
9
5
2
2
+7
17
4
FC NordsjaellandFC Nordsjaelland
9
5
2
2
+4
17
5
BrondbyBrondby
9
4
1
4
-3
13
6
AC HorsensAC Horsens
9
3
2
4
-1
11
7
SilkeborgSilkeborg
9
2
4
3
+0
10
8
Randers FCRanders FC
9
3
1
5
-3
10
9
OdenseOdense
9
2
3
4
-6
9
10
LyngbyLyngby
9
1
4
4
-6
7
11
AarhusAarhus
9
0
5
4
-6
5
12
SonderjyskeSonderjyske
9
1
2
6
-9
5