Winlytics.AI
Full time
Eredivisie (Netherlands)
·
Ajax
Ajax
5th · 14 pts·WLWWD
vs
—
Excelsior
Excelsior
7th · 11 pts·WWDLD
The story

Ajax host Excelsior looking to reach Eredivisie summit

Ajax have the opportunity to move top of the Eredivisie table temporarily with a victory, while Excelsior aim to end a run of late heartbreak.

Match news & current form

Ajax sit 4th with 13 points after six games and have found a clinical edge under manager Michel. Following a 3-1 defeat to PSV Eindhoven, they have responded with consecutive 5-1 victories over Fortuna Sittard and Willem II. This free-scoring form, which saw five different players find the net in their last match, has put them within striking distance of the top spot before the rest of the league plays on Sunday.

Excelsior occupy 7th place with 10 points and have proven a difficult side to beat despite a 2-1 loss to Utrecht last time out. That defeat followed a 2-2 draw with NEC Nijmegen, with both matches featuring goals conceded in stoppage time. Despite these late setbacks, the Rotterdam side remains a threat, having already secured impressive away wins at Willem II and Sparta Rotterdam this season.

Head-to-head history

While Ajax historically dominate this fixture with 54 wins from 69 meetings, recent history tells a different story. Ajax are winless in their last four games against Excelsior, a run that includes three 2-2 draws and a 2-1 defeat at the Johan Cruyff Arena in November 2025.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Ajax have scored five or more goals in back-to-back league matches for the first time since September 2021.
  • Each of Ajax's last eight matches has produced three or more goals.
  • Ajax have led at half-time in four of their last five fixtures.
  • Excelsior were winless in this fixture for 18 years before their current four-match unbeaten run against the Amsterdam giants.
Key players & missing men

Excelsior's attacking trio of David Garden, Irakli Yegoian, and Aymen Sliti have been highly productive, contributing to nine goals between them over the last five games. However, they may be without Noah Naujoks, who is a doubt after missing recent weeks. Ajax will be without S. Adingra, A. Bouwman, and the experienced D. Blind, but their spread of goalscorers remains their primary strength.

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We have published a signal on Ajax vs Excelsior — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Ajax vs Excelsior and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Ajax1.8
–
2.4Excelsior
Season average total: 4.13 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Ajax winDrawExcelsior win
Market call
Double chance : Ajax or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Ajax
1578
Excelsior
1377

Ajax are the stronger side — 201 rating points clear of Excelsior.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AjaxAjaxExcelsiorExcelsior
3.00Goals scored / game2.14
1.29Goals conceded / game1.29
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Ajax 7 games, Excelsior 7 games.

AjaxAjaxExcelsiorExcelsior
29%Games with a clean sheet29%
0%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Ajax
2–2
Excelsior
Excelsior
2–2
Ajax
Ajax
1–2
Excelsior
Ajax
2–2
Excelsior
Excelsior
2–2
Ajax
Form check

Their recent form.

Ajax
Ajax
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
AjaxvExcelsior
2–2
D
AjaxvWillem II
5–1
W
Fortuna SittardvAjax
1–5
W
AjaxvPSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
TelstarvAjax
0–4
W
Excelsior
Excelsior
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
AjaxvExcelsior
2–2
D
ExcelsiorvUtrecht
1–2
L
NEC NijmegenvExcelsior
2–2
D
Willem IIvExcelsior
0–3
W
ExcelsiorvSparta Rotterdam
2–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eredivisie (Netherlands) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
7
6
1
0
+12
19
2
FeyenoordFeyenoord
7
5
2
0
+18
17
3
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
7
5
1
1
+14
16
4
TwenteTwente
7
5
1
1
+8
16
5
AjaxAjax
7
4
2
1
+12
14
6
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
7
4
1
2
-1
13
7
ExcelsiorExcelsior
7
3
2
2
+6
11
8
GroningenGroningen
7
3
2
2
+2
11
9
GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles
7
2
4
1
+2
10
10
HeerenveenHeerenveen
7
2
3
2
+2
9
11
NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
7
2
2
3
-1
8
12
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
7
1
2
4
-7
5
13
TelstarTelstar
7
1
2
4
-7
5
14
CambuurCambuur
7
1
2
4
-9
5
15
UtrechtUtrecht
7
1
2
4
-13
5
16
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle
7
1
1
5
-14
4
17
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
7
0
2
5
-10
2
18
Willem IIWillem II
7
0
2
5
-14
2