Winlytics.AI
Full time
Eredivisie (Netherlands)
·
Ajax
Ajax
2nd · 24 pts·DDWWW
vs
—
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
3rd · 23 pts·LWLDW
The story

PSV seek title separation against unbeaten Ajax

A pivotal early-season De Topper sees PSV Eindhoven looking to open a six-point gap over an Ajax side defending a 14-match unbeaten streak.

Match news & current form

Ajax sit 4th on 7 points and are currently holding a continental qualification spot. They enter this fixture with significant momentum following a 4-0 thrashing of Telstar last weekend, extending their overall unbeaten run to 13 matches. Managerial stability has seen 'De Joden' recover from a historically poor run against their rivals, remaining undefeated in their last five meetings with PSV.

PSV Eindhoven occupy 2nd place with 10 points, just two behind the league leaders. Peter Bosz’s side have recovered emphatically from a slow start to the campaign, recently dismantling Utrecht 6-1 and Groningen 5-1. Despite the summer departures of Ismael Saibari and Joey Veerman, the defending champions remain the division's top-scoring unit and have scored in every away league match this season.

Head-to-head history

This fixture has seen a dramatic shift in power; after losing six consecutive matches to PSV, Ajax are now unbeaten in their last five encounters. The most recent meeting in May ended in a 2-2 draw, while PSV’s last victory in this rivalry was a 5-2 hammering back in October 2023.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Ajax are currently on a 14-match unbeaten run across all competitions.
  • PSV Eindhoven have won 32 of their last 38 Eredivisie matches.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 15 of PSV's last 16 league games.
  • PSV have scored at least two goals in 34 of their last 38 league outings.
  • Ajax have conceded fewer than one goal per game at the Johan Cruyff Arena this season.
Key players & missing men

Steven Bergwijn is the man in form for the hosts, having been involved in three goals during the win over Telstar. However, Ajax are without S. Adingra, Daley Blind, and R. Bounida. PSV face their own selection headaches with Jerdy Schouten, Alassane Plea, S. Ouaissa, and Sam Lammers all ruled out, while Ivan Perisic remains a doubt which could impact their defensive transitions.

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We have published a signal on Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Ajax1.8
–
2.1PSV Eindhoven
Season average total: 3.95 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
35%
35%
30%
Ajax winDrawPSV Eindhoven win
Market call
Double chance : Ajax or Draw
Goals forecast
Over 1.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Ajax
1578
PSV Eindhoven
1759

PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side — 181 rating points clear of Ajax.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AjaxAjaxPSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
2.73Goals scored / game3.18
1.18Goals conceded / game1.18
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Ajax 11 games, PSV Eindhoven 11 games.

AjaxAjaxPSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
27%Games with a clean sheet18%
0%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Ajax
1–3
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
2–2
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
2–2
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
0–2
Ajax
Ajax
3–2
PSV Eindhoven
Form check

Their recent form.

Ajax
Ajax
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
AjaxvAZ Alkmaar
1–0
W
Sparta RotterdamvAjax
1–2
W
GroningenvAjax
2–5
W
AjaxvNEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
AjaxvExcelsior
2–2
D
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
PSV EindhovenvWillem II
7–0
W
PSV EindhovenvFeyenoord
1–1
D
ADO Den HaagvPSV Eindhoven
2–1
L
PSV EindhovenvHeerenveen
2–0
W
TwentevPSV Eindhoven
3–2
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eredivisie (Netherlands) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FeyenoordFeyenoord
11
7
4
0
+21
25
2
AjaxAjax
11
7
3
1
+17
24
3
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
11
7
2
2
+22
23
4
TwenteTwente
11
7
2
2
+18
23
5
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
11
6
2
3
+7
20
6
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
11
5
4
2
+0
19
7
HeerenveenHeerenveen
11
5
3
3
+6
18
8
GroningenGroningen
11
4
3
4
+2
15
9
CambuurCambuur
11
4
3
4
+1
15
10
GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles
11
3
5
3
-4
14
11
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
11
3
3
5
-6
12
12
UtrechtUtrecht
11
3
3
5
-12
12
13
NEC NijmegenNEC Nijmegen
11
2
5
4
-2
11
14
PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle
11
3
2
6
-11
11
15
ExcelsiorExcelsior
11
3
2
6
-12
11
16
TelstarTelstar
11
2
3
6
-7
9
17
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
11
1
3
7
-11
6
18
Willem IIWillem II
11
0
2
9
-29
2