Winlytics.AI
Full time
La Liga (Spain)
·
Alaves
Alaves
6th · 11 pts·WWLLD
vs
Villarreal
Villarreal
9th · 8 pts·LLLWW
The story

Alaves defend unbeaten start against high-scoring Yellow Submarine

Alaves look to cement their early continental standing as Villarreal search for defensive stability following back-to-back high-scoring draws.

Match news & current form

Alaves enter Matchday 3 sitting 4th in the table with 4 points, currently holding a continental qualification spot. They maintained their unbeaten start to the campaign last week with a 1-1 draw away at Rayo Vallecano, following a dominant 3-0 victory over Getafe in their home opener.

Villarreal occupy 9th place with 2 points, sitting just one point off the European places. Marcelino’s side has proven prolific but porous, recording consecutive 2-2 draws against Racing Santander and Atletico Madrid. While they have scored twice in every game so far, they are yet to secure their first win of the season.

Head-to-head history

Mendizorrotza has become a difficult hunting ground for the visitors; Villarreal have not won an away league match against Alaves since January 2020. Alaves won the corresponding fixture 1-0 last season, though Villarreal did claim a 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture in January.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Alaves are unbeaten in their last four home meetings against Villarreal.
  • Villarreal have scored exactly two goals in each of their opening two La Liga fixtures.
  • The Yellow Submarine have conceded four goals in their first 180 minutes of football this season.
  • Alaves have kept a clean sheet in their only home game of the season so far.
Key players & missing men

Mariano Diaz is the man in form for the hosts, having scored in each of the opening two league matches. Alaves are expected to set up in a 5-3-2 formation with Antonio Sivera in goal, though they will be without the suspended Facundo Garces. Villarreal report no fresh injury concerns but must find a way to tighten a backline that has struggled for consistency away from home.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Alaves vs Villarreal and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Alaves1.9
1.3Villarreal
Season average total: 3.13 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Alaves winDrawVillarreal win
Market call
Winner : Alaves
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Alaves
1635
Villarreal
1759

Villarreal are the stronger side — 124 rating points clear of Alaves.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

AlavesAlaves
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.46
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
VillarrealVillarreal
Goals scored
2.00
Expected (xG)
2.40
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AlavesAlavesVillarrealVillarreal
1.57Goals scored / game1.86
0.86Goals conceded / game1.71
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Alaves 7 games, Villarreal 7 games.

AlavesAlavesVillarrealVillarreal
43%Games with a clean sheet0%
29%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Alaves
1–0
Villarreal
Alaves
1–1
Villarreal
Villarreal
3–1
Alaves
Alaves
1–0
Villarreal
Villarreal
3–0
Alaves
Form check

Their recent form.

Alaves
Alaves
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
AlavesvValencia
0–1
L
Racing SantandervAlaves
2–1
L
AlavesvOsasuna
5–2
W
AlavesvVillarreal
1–0
W
Villarreal
Villarreal
Struggling for results
Last 5
2W · 0D · 3L
VillarrealvLevante
3–1
W
MalagavVillarreal
1–3
W
VillarrealvReal Betis
1–2
L
VillarrealvDeportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
AlavesvVillarreal
1–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
7
7
0
0
+24
21
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
7
5
1
1
+9
16
3
Real BetisReal Betis
7
5
1
1
+2
16
4
Real MadridReal Madrid
7
5
0
2
+10
15
5
SevillaSevilla
7
4
1
2
+1
13
6
AlavesAlaves
7
3
2
2
+5
11
7
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
7
2
4
1
+2
10
8
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
7
3
1
3
-4
10
9
VillarrealVillarreal
7
2
2
3
+1
8
10
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
6
2
2
2
+1
8
11
GetafeGetafe
7
2
2
3
-3
8
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
7
2
2
3
-5
8
13
OsasunaOsasuna
7
2
2
3
-7
8
14
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
7
1
4
2
+2
7
15
EspanyolEspanyol
7
2
1
4
+0
7
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
7
2
1
4
-10
7
17
LevanteLevante
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ElcheElche
7
1
2
4
-6
5
19
ValenciaValencia
7
1
1
5
-9
4
20
MalagaMalaga
7
0
3
4
-9
3