Winlytics.AI
Full time
Segunda División (Spain)
·
Almeria
Almeria
4th · 12 pts·LLWWW
vs
—
Castellón
Castellón
1st · 16 pts·DWWWW
The story

Promotion final beckons after Almeria and Castellon stalemate

A place in the Segunda División promotion final is the prize as Almeria and Castellón settle their semi-final deadlock.

Match news & current form

Almeria, the Ronaldo-backed club, enters this return leg after securing third place in the regular season with 74 points. Despite missing out on direct promotion by just three points, they remain the highest-seeded team in the playoffs. Their recent form has been patchy, with just one win in their last five, including a 1-1 draw in the first leg at Castellón.

Castellón arrive in Almeria as the form side after narrowly securing sixth place on tiebreakers ahead of Burgos. They are unbeaten in their last five matches (W2, D3), showing significant resilience in recent draws against Cadiz and Ceuta. They must now find a way to win away from home to keep their promotion dream alive.

Head-to-head history

Castellón holds the advantage in the most recent encounters between the two clubs. In the last five meetings, Castellón has recorded three wins, while Almeria has managed just one victory. The most recent clash ended in a 1-1 draw in the first leg of this semi-final.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Castellón are currently on a five-match unbeaten streak across all competitions.
  • The first leg on June 6th ended in a 1-1 draw, leaving the tie perfectly balanced for the return in Almeria.
  • Almeria finished the regular season as the highest-ranked playoff team with 74 points.
  • Castellón secured their playoff spot on the final day, finishing level on 72 points with 7th-placed Burgos but progressing on additional criteria.
Key players & missing men

Both managers appear to have full squads at their disposal, with no fresh injuries or suspensions reported following the first leg. Almeria will rely on the core that took them to 3rd in the table, while Castellón's resilient defensive unit, which has seen them through a five-game unbeaten run, will be tested under the pressure of an away playoff atmosphere.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Almeria vs Castellón — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Almeria vs Castellón and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Almeria1.7
–
1.2Castellón
Season average total: 2.84 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Almeria winDrawCastellón win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Castellón
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Almeria
1556
Castellón
1546

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AlmeriaAlmeriaCastellónCastellón
1.67Goals scored / game2.00
0.67Goals conceded / game0.33
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Almeria 6 games, Castellón 6 games.

AlmeriaAlmeriaCastellónCastellón
50%Games with a clean sheet67%
33%Games they failed to score17%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Almeria
3–2
Castellón
Castellón
1–1
Almeria
Castellón
2–0
Almeria
Almeria
1–0
Castellón
Castellón
4–1
Almeria
Form check

Their recent form.

Almeria
Almeria
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
AlmeriavCelta de Vigo II
2–0
W
CordobavAlmeria
0–2
W
AlmeriavCadiz
3–2
W
SabadellvAlmeria
1–0
L
TenerifevAlmeria
1–0
L
Castellón
Castellón
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
CastellónvTenerife
5–0
W
GironavCastellón
1–2
W
CastellónvAlbacete
2–0
W
Celta de Vigo IIvCastellón
1–2
W
CastellónvSabadell
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Segunda División (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
CastellónCastellón
6
5
1
0
+10
16
2
EibarEibar
6
5
0
1
+8
15
3
MallorcaMallorca
6
4
1
1
+6
13
4
AlmeriaAlmeria
6
4
0
2
+6
12
5
BurgosBurgos
6
3
2
1
+3
11
6
SabadellSabadell
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
LeganesLeganes
6
3
2
1
+1
11
8
GironaGirona
6
3
1
2
+4
10
9
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
6
3
1
2
+1
10
10
Las PalmasLas Palmas
6
3
1
2
+0
10
11
TenerifeTenerife
6
3
1
2
-1
10
12
Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II
6
2
2
2
+1
8
13
OviedoOviedo
6
2
2
2
+1
8
14
Granada CFGranada CF
6
2
2
2
+0
8
15
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
6
2
1
3
-3
7
16
CordobaCordoba
6
2
0
4
-4
6
17
EldenseEldense
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ValladolidValladolid
6
1
2
3
-5
5
19
CadizCadiz
6
0
3
3
-3
3
20
FC AndorraFC Andorra
6
1
0
5
-4
3
21
AlbaceteAlbacete
6
0
1
5
-6
1
22
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
6
0
1
5
-13
1