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Segunda División (Spain)
·
Almeria
Almeria
4th · 12 pts·LLWWW
vs
—
Malaga
Malaga
·LDDLL
The story

Andalusian Rivals Battle for La Liga Promotion Spot

Almeria and Malaga meet at the Juegos Mediterráneos for the second leg of the play-off final with a place in La Liga for the 2026/27 season on the line.

Match news & current form

Almeria enter this decider in 3rd place on 74 points, having narrowly missed out on automatic promotion in the final rounds of the regular season. They have been formidable at home, recently securing a 3-2 victory over Castellón and a 1-0 win against Valladolid. After a 0-0 draw in the first leg, they rely on their strong home record to secure their return to the top flight.

Malaga are the season's surprise package, finishing 4th on 73 points. They arrive in Almeria on an eight-match unbeaten run and have shown remarkable consistency on the road, winning four consecutive away fixtures. Having held Almeria to a draw last week, the Andalusians are looking to cap a fairytale campaign with promotion.

Head-to-head history

The rivalry is finely balanced, with Malaga holding eight historical wins to Almeria's seven. While the first leg of this play-off ended goalless, the most recent league encounter in April 2026 was a high-scoring affair that saw Almeria edge out a 3-2 victory on home soil.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Malaga are currently on an eight-match unbeaten streak across all competitions.
  • Almeria have conceded in the first half in six of their last seven away games, though they return to their preferred home turf for this leg.
  • Malaga have won four consecutive away fixtures heading into this promotion decider.
  • Almeria have successfully covered a +1.5 handicap in eight of their last nine Segunda División matches.
Key players & missing men

Both squads appear to be at full strength for this crucial final, with no fresh injuries reported for either Almeria or Malaga. The hosts will look to capitalize on the atmosphere of a packed Juegos Mediterráneos, while Malaga’s disciplined defensive unit, which held firm in the first leg, faces its final test.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Almeria vs Malaga and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Almeria winDrawMalaga win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Malaga
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Almeria
1556
Malaga
1569

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AlmeriaAlmeriaMalagaMalaga
1.67Goals scored / game—
0.67Goals conceded / game—
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Almeria 6 games, Malaga — games.

AlmeriaAlmeriaMalagaMalaga
50%Games with a clean sheet—
33%Games they failed to score—
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Almeria
1–2
Malaga
Malaga
0–0
Almeria
Almeria
3–2
Malaga
Malaga
2–1
Almeria
Almeria
1–2
Malaga
Form check

Their recent form.

Almeria
Almeria
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
AlmeriavCelta de Vigo II
2–0
W
CordobavAlmeria
0–2
W
AlmeriavCadiz
3–2
W
SabadellvAlmeria
1–0
L
TenerifevAlmeria
1–0
L
Malaga
Malaga
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
GetafevMalaga
1–0
L
MalagavVillarreal
1–3
L
Celta VigovMalaga
1–1
D
MalagavLevante
0–0
D
Real MadridvMalaga
4–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Segunda División (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
CastellónCastellón
6
5
1
0
+10
16
2
EibarEibar
6
5
0
1
+8
15
3
MallorcaMallorca
6
4
1
1
+6
13
4
AlmeriaAlmeria
6
4
0
2
+6
12
5
BurgosBurgos
6
3
2
1
+3
11
6
SabadellSabadell
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
LeganesLeganes
6
3
2
1
+1
11
8
GironaGirona
6
3
1
2
+4
10
9
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
6
3
1
2
+1
10
10
Las PalmasLas Palmas
6
3
1
2
+0
10
11
TenerifeTenerife
6
3
1
2
-1
10
12
Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II
6
2
2
2
+1
8
13
OviedoOviedo
6
2
2
2
+1
8
14
Granada CFGranada CF
6
2
2
2
+0
8
15
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
6
2
1
3
-3
7
16
CordobaCordoba
6
2
0
4
-4
6
17
EldenseEldense
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ValladolidValladolid
6
1
2
3
-5
5
19
CadizCadiz
6
0
3
3
-3
3
20
FC AndorraFC Andorra
6
1
0
5
-4
3
21
AlbaceteAlbacete
6
0
1
5
-6
1
22
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
6
0
1
5
-13
1