Winlytics.AI
Full time
Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
Alverca
Alverca
10th · 8 pts·LDLWW
vs
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
4th · 15 pts·WDWWD
The story

Alverca battle relegation as Santa Clara chase leaders

A desperate Alverca host high-flying Santa Clara at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, with the hosts fighting to escape the relegation zone while the visitors aim to close the gap on the league leaders.

Match news & current form

Alverca sit 17th in the table with just one point and face a daunting 31-game battle to secure their top-flight status. They enter this fixture following a 3-1 defeat away to Sporting CP, where they conceded three goals inside the first hour. While they managed a 2-2 draw with Estrela in their last home outing, they are still searching for their first win of the campaign.

Santa Clara arrive in stellar form, sitting 3rd with seven points and firmly in the title race, trailing the leaders by only two points. The Azoreans have built their early-season success on defensive solidity, securing back-to-back 1-0 victories over Famalicao and Academico Viseu. Manager Petit may look to freshen his attack by bringing winger Brenner into the starting XI for this gameweek four clash.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Santa Clara have secured back-to-back 1-0 wins heading into this fixture.
  • Alverca have failed to win any of their first three matches since returning to the Primeira Liga.
  • The Azoreans have historically struggled away from home, picking up just six points from a possible 30 on the road in their previous top-flight stint.
  • Alverca's last home game ended in a high-scoring 2-2 draw against Estrela.
Key players & missing men

Alverca face a significant selection crisis with winger Chiquinho serving the second of a three-match ban for violent conduct. They are also missing Julian Martinez, Sabit Abdulai, Stephane Diarra, Leo Chu, and Tomas Mendes through injury. However, Andre Vidigal could be handed his full league debut, and Samy Merheg is expected to be recalled to the squad.

Santa Clara have concerns of their own as Matheus Araujo is ruled out and Joao Costa remains a major doubt for the trip. The visitors will rely on their defensive unit, which has kept two consecutive clean sheets, to stifle an Alverca side that has struggled for consistency in the final third.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Alverca vs Santa Clara — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Alverca vs Santa Clara and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Alverca1.0
1.3Santa Clara
Season average total: 2.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Alverca winDrawSanta Clara win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Santa Clara
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Alverca
1444
Santa Clara
1483

Santa Clara are the stronger side — 39 rating points clear of Alverca.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AlvercaAlvercaSanta ClaraSanta Clara
1.29Goals scored / game1.57
1.57Goals conceded / game0.57
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Alverca 7 games, Santa Clara 7 games.

AlvercaAlvercaSanta ClaraSanta Clara
14%Games with a clean sheet57%
14%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Alverca
1–1
Santa Clara
Alverca
1–1
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
2–1
Alverca
Form check

Their recent form.

Alverca
Alverca
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
AlvercavRio Ave
1–0
W
NacionalvAlverca
1–3
W
AlvercavSC Braga
1–2
L
AlvercavSanta Clara
1–1
D
Sporting CPvAlverca
3–1
L
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
Santa ClaravSC Braga
0–0
D
AroucavSanta Clara
1–2
W
Santa ClaravRio Ave
4–0
W
AlvercavSanta Clara
1–1
D
Santa ClaravFamalicao
1–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
7
7
0
0
+15
21
2
BenficaBenfica
7
5
1
1
+15
16
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
7
4
3
0
+9
15
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
7
4
3
0
+7
15
5
AroucaArouca
7
3
2
2
+3
11
6
SC BragaSC Braga
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
7
3
2
2
+0
11
8
EstrelaEstrela
7
2
4
1
+0
10
9
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
6
2
2
2
+0
8
10
AlvercaAlverca
7
2
2
3
-2
8
11
MaritimoMaritimo
7
2
2
3
-4
8
12
MoreirenseMoreirense
7
2
2
3
-6
8
13
FamalicaoFamalicao
7
1
4
2
+2
7
14
Vitória SCVitória SC
7
1
2
4
-3
5
15
NacionalNacional
7
1
1
5
-8
4
16
Rio AveRio Ave
7
1
1
5
-10
4
17
Casa PiaCasa Pia
7
1
1
5
-13
4
18
EstorilEstoril
7
0
2
5
-7
2