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Primeira Liga (Portugal)
·
Arouca
Arouca
5th · 20 pts·LDWWW
vs
—
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
4th · 21 pts·WDWLW
The story

Arouca and Santa Clara Clash for European Places

Two of the Primeira Liga’s early high-flyers meet with both sides currently occupying positions that would secure continental qualification.

Match news & current form

Arouca enter this fixture in 5th place on 10 points, currently holding the final Conference League place. They have found stability early in the campaign with three wins from their last five, though they were held to a 0-0 draw at Estoril last time out. Their home form is their greatest asset, having won their last two matches at the Estádio Municipal de Arouca against Maritimo and Moreirense.

Santa Clara sit one point and one place above their hosts in 4th, occupying a Europa League spot. They are protecting an unbeaten start to the season (W3, D2) and arrive with significant momentum following a 4-0 demolition of Rio Ave. While they have been clinical at home, their last away trip resulted in a -1-1 draw at Alverca, suggesting they can be frustrated on the road.

Head-to-head history

Recent history between these two has been tightly contested, though Santa Clara held the upper hand in their most recent meeting with a 3-0 victory in July 2026. Prior to that, the sides shared the points in two consecutive draws, including a 2-2 result at this venue in May 2026. Arouca’s last victory in this fixture was a 1-0 home win in December 2024.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Santa Clara are looking to extend their unbeaten Primeira Liga start to six matches for the first time this season.
  • Arouca are unbeaten in their last six home league matches (W5, D1) dating back to early April.
  • Arouca have kept clean sheets in three of their last five league outings.
  • Santa Clara have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings across all competitions.
Key players & missing men

Santa Clara’s attacking threat is led by their 32-year-old forward who provided an assist against Rio Ave and has already netted four goals this campaign. Arouca rely on the defensive discipline of a back four featuring Sanchez and Fontan, which has conceded just two goals in their last four matches. No major absences are reported for either side, though Arouca are noted to have a minor injury concern in the squad.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Arouca vs Santa Clara and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Arouca1.1
–
1.0Santa Clara
Season average total: 2.10 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Arouca winDrawSanta Clara win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Santa Clara
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Arouca
1501
Santa Clara
1483

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AroucaAroucaSanta ClaraSanta Clara
1.30Goals scored / game1.50
0.70Goals conceded / game0.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Arouca 10 games, Santa Clara 10 games.

AroucaAroucaSanta ClaraSanta Clara
60%Games with a clean sheet60%
20%Games they failed to score10%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Arouca
1–2
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
3–0
Arouca
Arouca
2–2
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
0–0
Arouca
Santa Clara
2–0
Arouca
Form check

Their recent form.

Arouca
Arouca
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
AroucavNacional
1–0
W
AlvercavArouca
0–1
W
AroucavEstrela
1–0
W
Sporting CPvArouca
2–2
D
AroucavSanta Clara
1–2
L
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
MaritimovSanta Clara
0–2
W
Santa ClaravBenfica
1–2
L
Casa PiavSanta Clara
0–1
W
Santa ClaravSC Braga
0–0
D
AroucavSanta Clara
1–2
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Primeira Liga (Portugal) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC PortoFC Porto
10
10
0
0
+21
30
2
BenficaBenfica
10
8
1
1
+19
25
3
Sporting CPSporting CP
10
6
3
1
+12
21
4
Santa ClaraSanta Clara
10
6
3
1
+9
21
5
AroucaArouca
10
6
2
2
+6
20
6
Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu
10
6
2
2
+3
20
7
GIL VicenteGIL Vicente
10
4
3
3
+1
15
8
SC BragaSC Braga
10
4
2
4
+1
14
9
MoreirenseMoreirense
10
4
2
4
-4
14
10
AlvercaAlverca
10
3
2
5
-1
11
11
FamalicaoFamalicao
10
2
4
4
+0
10
12
EstrelaEstrela
10
2
4
4
-4
10
13
Vitória SCVitória SC
10
2
3
5
+0
9
14
MaritimoMaritimo
10
2
2
6
-12
8
15
NacionalNacional
10
2
1
7
-9
7
16
Rio AveRio Ave
10
2
1
7
-14
7
17
Casa PiaCasa Pia
10
2
1
7
-14
7
18
EstorilEstoril
10
0
2
8
-14
2