Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
AS Roma
AS Roma
1st · 13 pts·WWWWD
vs
—
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
17th · 4 pts·LLLWD
The story

Roma eye fast start against rejuvenated Fiorentina

AS Roma begin their quest to build on last season's Champions League qualification as they host a Fiorentina side looking to escape the shadow of a recent relegation battle.

Match news & current form

AS Roma enter the new campaign under Gian Piero Gasperini following a third-place finish last season, their highest since 2017-18. While their pre-season was underwhelming, concluding with a 2-2 draw against Borussia Dortmund and only one win in five friendlies, the Giallorossi are traditionally fast starters, losing just one of their last 14 opening-day fixtures.

Fiorentina arrive in the capital under new management as Fabio Grosso replaces Paolo Vanoli. Despite Vanoli's historic escape from relegation last term, the Viola have turned to Grosso to establish them higher up the table. They carry momentum from a 4-1 Coppa Italia win over Benevento and a pre-season that saw them lose only once in six outings.

Head-to-head history

Roma have held the upper hand in recent meetings at the Stadio Olimpico, including a dominant 4-0 victory over Fiorentina as recently as May. Both teams have found the back of the net in five of the last seven Serie A encounters, though the Viola have struggled for clean sheets, failing to keep one in four of their last five matches across all competitions.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Roma are currently on a 12-match unbeaten run at home in Serie A, consisting of nine wins and three draws.
  • Fiorentina’s Moise Kean has scored four league goals against Roma but has failed to find the net in 10 previous appearances at the Stadio Olimpico.
  • Roma have won their last five consecutive league matches dating back to the end of the 2025-26 season.
  • Fiorentina lost only one of their final 11 Serie A matches last season during their successful survival bid.
Key players & missing men

Roma's attack could see a debut for new signing Santiago Castro, who competes with Donyell Malen and Paulo Dybala for a starting spot, though Nahuel Molina is unavailable due to a seven-match international ban. The hosts are also without M. Bah and L. Pellegrini. Fiorentina will rely on Moise Kean, who opened his account in the Coppa Italia last week, but they travel without the injured F. Parisi and R. Sottil.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
AS Roma2.8
–
1.5Fiorentina
Season average total: 4.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
AS Roma winDrawFiorentina win
Market call
Double chance : AS Roma or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

AS Roma
1793
Fiorentina
1670

AS Roma are the stronger side — 123 rating points clear of Fiorentina.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

AS RomaAS Roma
Goals scored
2.70
Expected (xG)
2.85
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
FiorentinaFiorentina
Goals scored
0.90
Expected (xG)
1.23
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AS RomaAS RomaFiorentinaFiorentina
2.80Goals scored / game1.20
0.60Goals conceded / game2.40
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — AS Roma 5 games, Fiorentina 5 games.

AS RomaAS RomaFiorentinaFiorentina
60%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

AS Roma
4–0
Fiorentina
AS Roma
4–0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
1–2
AS Roma
AS Roma
1–0
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
5–1
AS Roma
Form check

Their recent form.

AS Roma
AS Roma
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
AS RomavInter
2–2
D
TorinovAS Roma
0–2
W
AS RomavAtalanta
2–1
W
LeccevAS Roma
0–4
W
AS RomavFiorentina
4–0
W
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
FiorentinavNapoli
1–1
D
VeneziavFiorentina
2–4
W
FiorentinavTorino
1–2
L
FiorentinavFrosinone
0–3
L
AS RomavFiorentina
4–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0