Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 19h
Premier League (England)
·
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
16th · 4 pts·LLDLW
vs
—
Brentford
Brentford
4th · 9 pts·WDDDW
The story

Aston Villa host unbeaten Brentford at Villa Park

Aston Villa look to build momentum after an uneven start against an unbeaten Brentford side sitting fourth after five games.

Match news & current form

Aston Villa sit 16th on four points after five games following a slow start and a major summer overhaul under Unai Emery. However, they entered the break with momentum after securing a dramatic 3-2 victory away at Tottenham, providing a much-needed lift after consecutive league defeats.

Brentford have made a strong start to the campaign, sitting fourth on nine points after five matches under Keith Andrews. The Bees are unbeaten in their opening five league fixtures, sweeping Chelsea aside 3-0 in their last outing and remaining undefeated across all seven competitive matches this term.

Head-to-head history

Brentford have enjoyed recent success in this fixture, winning both Premier League clashes between the clubs last season 1-0, including a 1-0 victory at Villa Park on 1 February 2026. Across the last five meetings, Brentford hold two wins, Villa have two, and one finished level.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Brentford are unbeaten in all seven competitive matches this season.
  • Aston Villa have failed to keep a Premier League clean sheet at Villa Park since 22 March.
  • Each of the last four meetings between these two sides in all competitions has produced under 2.5 goals.
  • Brentford kept clean sheets in both Premier League head-to-head fixtures last season.
Key players & missing men

Swiss forward Johan Manzambi opened his Premier League account against Tottenham and is expected to partner Nicolas Jackson in attack for Villa, backed by goalkeeper Zion Suzuki. Neither club has reported any fresh absences heading into the clash.

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We have published a signal on Aston Villa vs Brentford — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Aston Villa vs Brentford and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Aston Villa1.0
–
1.5Brentford
Season average total: 2.50 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Aston Villa winDrawBrentford win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Brentford
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Aston Villa
1921
Brentford
1837

Aston Villa are the stronger side — 84 rating points clear of Brentford.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Aston VillaAston Villa
Goals scored
1.30
Expected (xG)
1.32
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
BrentfordBrentford
Goals scored
1.70
Expected (xG)
1.78
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Aston VillaAston VillaBrentfordBrentford
0.80Goals scored / game2.00
1.80Goals conceded / game0.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Aston Villa 5 games, Brentford 5 games.

Aston VillaAston VillaBrentfordBrentford
20%Games with a clean sheet40%
60%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Aston Villa
0–1
Brentford
Brentford
1–1
Aston Villa
Brentford
1–0
Aston Villa
Brentford
0–1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
3–1
Brentford
Form check

Their recent form.

Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
TottenhamvAston Villa
2–3
W
Aston VillavNottingham Forest
1–2
L
Hull CityvAston Villa
0–0
D
Aston VillavArsenal
0–1
L
BrightonvAston Villa
4–0
L
Brentford
Brentford
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
BrentfordvChelsea
3–0
W
BournemouthvBrentford
2–2
D
BrentfordvSunderland
1–1
D
LeedsvBrentford
1–1
D
BrentfordvTottenham
3–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (England) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Manchester CityManchester City
5
5
0
0
+8
15
2
ArsenalArsenal
5
4
0
1
+4
12
3
BrightonBrighton
5
3
1
1
+11
10
4
BrentfordBrentford
5
2
3
0
+6
9
5
LeedsLeeds
5
2
3
0
+4
9
6
LiverpoolLiverpool
5
2
3
0
+3
9
7
EvertonEverton
5
2
3
0
+3
9
8
Hull CityHull City
5
2
2
1
+2
8
9
NewcastleNewcastle
5
2
2
1
+0
8
10
ChelseaChelsea
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
IpswichIpswich
5
2
0
3
-4
6
12
Manchester UnitedManchester United
5
1
2
2
+0
5
13
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
5
1
2
2
-1
5
14
SunderlandSunderland
5
1
1
3
-4
4
15
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5
1
1
3
-5
4
16
Aston VillaAston Villa
5
1
1
3
-5
4
17
BournemouthBournemouth
5
0
3
2
-2
3
18
CoventryCoventry
5
1
0
4
-9
3
19
FulhamFulham
5
0
2
3
-3
2
20
TottenhamTottenham
5
0
2
3
-6
2