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Full time
La Liga (Spain)
·
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
10th · 8 pts·LWWDD
vs
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 16 pts·LLWWW
The story

Simeone’s unbeaten start tested at the San Mamés

Atletico Madrid travel to Bilbao looking to maintain their title charge against an Athletic side desperate to pull away from the early-season relegation scrap.

Match news & current form

Athletic Club enter this fixture in 13th place, sitting just two points above the drop zone. After a difficult 3-1 home loss to Sevilla and a defeat at Barcelona, they found relief last time out with a 2-0 away victory against Celta Vigo. Ernesto Valverde’s side must now find defensive stability to climb the table and secure their top-flight status.

Atletico Madrid remain firmly in the title race, sitting 3rd and trailing the leaders by just two points. Diego Simeone has guided his side to an unbeaten start, most recently securing a 3-1 away win at Sevilla. Despite their strong league position, tactical shifts are expected as Simeone looks to neutralize Athletic’s pace on the flanks, potentially moving to a 3-4-2-1 system.

Head-to-head history

While Atletico Madrid hold the superior long-term record with 23 wins to Athletic’s 11, the tide has turned in recent encounters. Athletic Club have won three of the last four meetings between these sides, though Atletico did manage a 3-2 victory in their most recent clash back in April.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Atletico Madrid have failed to lose in their opening three league games of the 2026/27 campaign.
  • Baena has emerged as Atletico's creative spark, contributing directly to a goal in every league match so far this season.
  • Athletic Club have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings across all competitions.
  • Unai Egiluz remains a long-term absentee for the hosts following an ACL injury.
Key players & missing men

Athletic will rely on the pace of Inaki and Nico Williams to stretch the Atletico defense, with Gorka Guruzeta leading the line. However, the hosts are hampered by a significant injury list including Vivian, Prados Diaz, and Serrano. Atletico face their own selection crisis upfront; despite their unbeaten run, they are without forwards Alexander Sorloth and Julian Alvarez due to fitness issues, leaving a gap in their attacking rotation.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Athletic Club1.3
1.5Atletico Madrid
Season average total: 2.79 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
0%
50%
50%
Athletic Club winDrawAtletico Madrid win
Market call
Winner : Atletico Madrid
Goals forecast
Over 1.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Athletic Club
1678
Atletico Madrid
1828

Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 150 rating points clear of Athletic Club.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.75
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Goals scored
2.00
Expected (xG)
1.98
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubAtletico MadridAtletico Madrid
1.17Goals scored / game2.29
1.00Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Athletic Club 6 games, Atletico Madrid 7 games.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubAtletico MadridAtletico Madrid
50%Games with a clean sheet43%
33%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Athletic Club
3–0
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
3–2
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
1–0
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
1–0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
0–1
Atletico Madrid
Form check

Their recent form.

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvElche
1–1
D
Athletic ClubvAtletico Madrid
3–0
W
Celta VigovAthletic Club
0–2
W
BarcelonavAthletic Club
2–0
L
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
Atletico MadridvReal Madrid
2–1
W
Atletico MadridvOsasuna
4–0
W
Real SociedadvAtletico Madrid
0–3
W
LiverpoolvAtletico Madrid
2–1
L
Athletic ClubvAtletico Madrid
3–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
7
7
0
0
+24
21
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
7
5
1
1
+9
16
3
Real BetisReal Betis
7
5
1
1
+2
16
4
Real MadridReal Madrid
7
5
0
2
+10
15
5
SevillaSevilla
7
4
1
2
+1
13
6
AlavesAlaves
7
3
2
2
+5
11
7
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
7
2
4
1
+2
10
8
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
7
3
1
3
-4
10
9
VillarrealVillarreal
7
2
2
3
+1
8
10
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
6
2
2
2
+1
8
11
GetafeGetafe
7
2
2
3
-3
8
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
7
2
2
3
-5
8
13
OsasunaOsasuna
7
2
2
3
-7
8
14
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
7
1
4
2
+2
7
15
EspanyolEspanyol
7
2
1
4
+0
7
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
7
2
1
4
-10
7
17
LevanteLevante
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ElcheElche
7
1
2
4
-6
5
19
ValenciaValencia
7
1
1
5
-9
4
20
MalagaMalaga
7
0
3
4
-9
3