Atletico Madrid travel to Bilbao looking to maintain their title charge against an Athletic side desperate to pull away from the early-season relegation scrap.
Athletic Club enter this fixture in 13th place, sitting just two points above the drop zone. After a difficult 3-1 home loss to Sevilla and a defeat at Barcelona, they found relief last time out with a 2-0 away victory against Celta Vigo. Ernesto Valverde’s side must now find defensive stability to climb the table and secure their top-flight status.
Atletico Madrid remain firmly in the title race, sitting 3rd and trailing the leaders by just two points. Diego Simeone has guided his side to an unbeaten start, most recently securing a 3-1 away win at Sevilla. Despite their strong league position, tactical shifts are expected as Simeone looks to neutralize Athletic’s pace on the flanks, potentially moving to a 3-4-2-1 system.
How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.
Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.
One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.
Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 150 rating points clear of Athletic Club.
xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).
Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.
Both teams across every game this season.
Whole season, home and away combined — Athletic Club 6 games, Atletico Madrid 7 games.
La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.