Winlytics.AI
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La Liga (Spain)
·
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
7th · 15 pts·DDLWW
vs
—
Elche
Elche
17th · 10 pts·LWDDW
The story

Athletic chase Conference League spot as Elche struggle early

Athletic Club look to continue their climb toward the Conference League places against an Elche side currently stuck in the relegation zone after a difficult opening month.

Match news & current form

Athletic Club sit 10th on 6 points, just one point and four places off the Conference League positions with 34 games remaining. After losing their opening two fixtures, Edin Terzic’s side have found momentum with back-to-back wins, most recently dismantling Atletico Madrid 3-0 at San Mames with goals from Nico Williams, Robert Navarro, and Oihan Sancet.

Elche travel to Bilbao in 19th place with just 1 point from their opening four matches. Martin Anselmi’s team started with a draw against Deportivo La Coruna but have since suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 2-3 loss to Real Sociedad last time out. They remain inside the relegation zone and are searching for their first win of the season.

Head-to-head history

The historical record favours the Basque hosts, who have won 24 of the 56 total meetings between these sides. Athletic Club secured a 2-1 victory in the most recent encounter in February 2026, though Elche did manage a 1-0 win at San Mames back in May 2023.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Elche have conceded the opening goal inside the first 25 minutes in all four La Liga matches this season.
  • Athletic Club have scored five goals across their last two matches after being shut out in their previous two.
  • Elche have conceded 12 goals in four games, the highest tally in the division so far.
  • Athletic Club have only conceded five goals this season; only the current top three teams have a better defensive record.
Key players & missing men

Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet are the men in form for the hosts following their scoring exploits against Atletico Madrid. Athletic will be without P. Canales, U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, and D. Vivian. Elche are missing Y. Santiago, while there are significant doubts over the fitness of Fer Niño and Thomas Lemar.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Athletic Club1.4
–
1.3Elche
Season average total: 2.67 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Athletic Club winDrawElche win
Market call
Double chance : Athletic Club or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Athletic Club
1678
Elche
1623

Athletic Club are the stronger side — 54 rating points clear of Elche.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.57
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
ElcheElche
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.32
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubElcheElche
1.40Goals scored / game1.27
1.00Goals conceded / game1.64
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Athletic Club 10 games, Elche 11 games.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubElcheElche
50%Games with a clean sheet27%
30%Games they failed to score36%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Athletic Club
1–1
Elche
Athletic Club
2–1
Elche
Elche
0–0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
0–1
Elche
Elche
1–4
Athletic Club
Form check

Their recent form.

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Athletic ClubvReal Sociedad
2–1
W
Athletic ClubvGetafe
4–0
W
LevantevAthletic Club
3–1
L
ValenciavAthletic Club
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
Elche
Elche
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Rayo VallecanovElche
0–3
W
VillarrealvElche
0–0
D
ElchevCelta Vigo
0–0
D
EspanyolvElche
1–3
W
ElchevReal Madrid
2–3
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
11
10
0
1
+34
30
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
11
9
1
1
+14
28
3
Real MadridReal Madrid
11
9
0
2
+18
27
4
Real BetisReal Betis
11
7
2
2
+3
23
5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
11
6
1
4
+0
19
6
SevillaSevilla
11
5
2
4
-2
17
7
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
10
4
3
3
+4
15
8
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
11
3
5
3
+1
14
9
VillarrealVillarreal
11
3
3
5
+0
12
10
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
11
2
6
3
+0
12
11
AlavesAlaves
11
3
3
5
-2
12
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
10
3
3
4
-5
12
13
GetafeGetafe
11
3
3
5
-8
12
14
EspanyolEspanyol
11
3
2
6
-1
11
15
OsasunaOsasuna
11
3
2
6
-11
11
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
11
3
2
6
-14
11
17
ElcheElche
11
2
4
5
-4
10
18
LevanteLevante
11
2
4
5
-5
10
19
ValenciaValencia
11
2
3
6
-9
9
20
MalagaMalaga
11
0
5
6
-13
5