Winlytics.AI
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La Liga (Spain)
·
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
10th · 8 pts·LWWDD
vs
Elche
Elche
18th · 5 pts·LLDLW
The story

Athletic chase Conference League spot as Elche struggle early

Athletic Club look to continue their climb toward the Conference League places against an Elche side currently stuck in the relegation zone after a difficult opening month.

Match news & current form

Athletic Club sit 10th on 6 points, just one point and four places off the Conference League positions with 34 games remaining. After losing their opening two fixtures, Edin Terzic’s side have found momentum with back-to-back wins, most recently dismantling Atletico Madrid 3-0 at San Mames with goals from Nico Williams, Robert Navarro, and Oihan Sancet.

Elche travel to Bilbao in 19th place with just 1 point from their opening four matches. Martin Anselmi’s team started with a draw against Deportivo La Coruna but have since suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 2-3 loss to Real Sociedad last time out. They remain inside the relegation zone and are searching for their first win of the season.

Head-to-head history

The historical record favours the Basque hosts, who have won 24 of the 56 total meetings between these sides. Athletic Club secured a 2-1 victory in the most recent encounter in February 2026, though Elche did manage a 1-0 win at San Mames back in May 2023.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Elche have conceded the opening goal inside the first 25 minutes in all four La Liga matches this season.
  • Athletic Club have scored five goals across their last two matches after being shut out in their previous two.
  • Elche have conceded 12 goals in four games, the highest tally in the division so far.
  • Athletic Club have only conceded five goals this season; only the current top three teams have a better defensive record.
Key players & missing men

Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet are the men in form for the hosts following their scoring exploits against Atletico Madrid. Athletic will be without P. Canales, U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta, and D. Vivian. Elche are missing Y. Santiago, while there are significant doubts over the fitness of Fer Niño and Thomas Lemar.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Athletic Club1.4
1.4Elche
Season average total: 2.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Athletic Club winDrawElche win
Market call
Double chance : Athletic Club or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Athletic Club
1678
Elche
1623

Athletic Club are the stronger side — 54 rating points clear of Elche.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.75
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
ElcheElche
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.14
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubElcheElche
1.17Goals scored / game1.57
1.00Goals conceded / game2.43
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Athletic Club 6 games, Elche 7 games.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubElcheElche
50%Games with a clean sheet0%
33%Games they failed to score14%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Athletic Club
1–1
Elche
Athletic Club
2–1
Elche
Elche
0–0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
0–1
Elche
Elche
1–4
Athletic Club
Form check

Their recent form.

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvElche
1–1
D
Athletic ClubvAtletico Madrid
3–0
W
Celta VigovAthletic Club
0–2
W
BarcelonavAthletic Club
2–0
L
Elche
Elche
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
EspanyolvElche
1–3
W
ElchevReal Madrid
2–3
L
Athletic ClubvElche
1–1
D
ElchevReal Sociedad
2–3
L
Racing SantandervElche
3–2
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
7
7
0
0
+24
21
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
7
5
1
1
+9
16
3
Real BetisReal Betis
7
5
1
1
+2
16
4
Real MadridReal Madrid
7
5
0
2
+10
15
5
SevillaSevilla
7
4
1
2
+1
13
6
AlavesAlaves
7
3
2
2
+5
11
7
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
7
2
4
1
+2
10
8
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
7
3
1
3
-4
10
9
VillarrealVillarreal
7
2
2
3
+1
8
10
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
6
2
2
2
+1
8
11
GetafeGetafe
7
2
2
3
-3
8
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
7
2
2
3
-5
8
13
OsasunaOsasuna
7
2
2
3
-7
8
14
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
7
1
4
2
+2
7
15
EspanyolEspanyol
7
2
1
4
+0
7
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
7
2
1
4
-10
7
17
LevanteLevante
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ElcheElche
7
1
2
4
-6
5
19
ValenciaValencia
7
1
1
5
-9
4
20
MalagaMalaga
7
0
3
4
-9
3