Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 9h
La Liga (Spain)
·
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
8th · 12 pts·DDDLW
vs
—
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
5th · 19 pts·LWWWW
The story

Athletic Club host in-form rivals Real Sociedad in Bilbao

San Mames hosts the Basque derby with Athletic Club aiming to build on a resounding home win and Real Sociedad looking to extend a four-match winning run.

Match news & current form

Athletic Club sit eighth on 12 points after nine matches, having played one game fewer than their visitors due to a rescheduling. They responded emphatically to a 3-1 defeat at Levante by sweeping aside Getafe 4-0 at home in their most recent outing, snapping a run of low-scoring draws against Elche, Alaves, and Valencia.

Real Sociedad sit fifth with 19 points from 10 games, putting together their strongest run in recent years. Since a 3-0 home loss to Atletico Madrid, the San Sebastian club have strung together four consecutive victories, edging Levante 2-1 last time out following high-scoring triumphs over Malaga, Deportivo La Coruna, and Valencia.

Head-to-head history

Across 183 competitive meetings, Athletic Club hold 72 victories to Real Sociedad's 63, with 48 draws. Recent meetings have been tight, with Athletic winning 1-0 away in October 2026, while Real Sociedad claimed 1-0 victories in both March and February 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Real Sociedad have won four consecutive league matches, scoring at least two goals in all four.
  • Both teams have scored in each of Real Sociedad's last four games.
  • Athletic Club have scored fewer than two goals in three of their last four meetings with Real Sociedad.
  • Athletic Club enter this derby having kept clean sheets in three of their last four matches.
Key players & missing men

Athletic Club are boosted by the return of Oihan Sancet from injury, while forward Inaki Williams, with 114 career goals, offers an established attacking threat alongside goalkeeper Unai Simon. Real Sociedad look to talisman Mikel Oyarzabal, who has 135 career goals, to lead the line in front of former Athletic academy keeper Alex Remiro. Neither side has confirmed absences.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Athletic Club2.0
–
1.6Real Sociedad
Season average total: 3.60 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Athletic Club winDrawReal Sociedad win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Real Sociedad
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Athletic Club
1678
Real Sociedad
1669

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.57
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
Goals scored
1.90
Expected (xG)
1.62
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubReal SociedadReal Sociedad
1.33Goals scored / game1.90
1.00Goals conceded / game1.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Athletic Club 9 games, Real Sociedad 10 games.

Athletic ClubAthletic ClubReal SociedadReal Sociedad
56%Games with a clean sheet10%
33%Games they failed to score30%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Real Sociedad
0–1
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
1–0
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
0–1
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
1–1
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
3–2
Athletic Club
Injuries & suspensions

Who’s out.

Athletic Club
U. Egiluz
Out · Knee Injury
Athletic Club
G. Guruzeta
Out · Knee Injury
Athletic Club
I. Ruiz de Galarreta
Out · Hamstring Injury
Athletic Club
O. Sancet
Doubt · Muscle Injury
Form check

Their recent form.

Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 3D · 1L
Athletic ClubvGetafe
4–0
W
LevantevAthletic Club
3–1
L
ValenciavAthletic Club
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvElche
1–1
D
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Real SociedadvLevante
2–1
W
MalagavReal Sociedad
2–5
W
Real SociedadvDeportivo La Coruna
3–2
W
ValenciavReal Sociedad
2–3
W
Real SociedadvAtletico Madrid
0–3
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
10
9
0
1
+29
27
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
10
8
1
1
+12
25
3
Real MadridReal Madrid
10
8
0
2
+15
24
4
Real BetisReal Betis
10
6
2
2
+2
20
5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
10
6
1
3
+1
19
6
SevillaSevilla
10
5
2
3
+0
17
7
AlavesAlaves
10
3
3
4
+3
12
8
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
9
3
3
3
+3
12
9
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
10
2
6
2
+3
12
10
VillarrealVillarreal
10
3
3
4
+1
12
11
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
10
2
5
3
+0
11
12
OsasunaOsasuna
10
3
2
5
-10
11
13
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
10
3
2
5
-11
11
14
LevanteLevante
10
2
4
4
-3
10
15
ElcheElche
10
2
4
4
-3
10
16
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
9
2
3
4
-8
9
17
GetafeGetafe
10
2
3
5
-10
9
18
EspanyolEspanyol
10
2
2
6
-2
8
19
ValenciaValencia
10
1
3
6
-10
6
20
MalagaMalaga
10
0
5
5
-12
5