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La Liga (Spain)
·
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
2nd · 28 pts·WWWWW
vs
—
Villarreal
Villarreal
9th · 12 pts·WLDWL
The story

Atletico eye second win as Villarreal visit Madrid

Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid look to maintain their perfect start to the campaign against a Villarreal side aiming to break into the European spots.

Match news & current form

Atletico Madrid sit 4th with 3 points after a professional 2-0 victory over Malaga to open their season. Diego Simeone’s side relied on late goals from Lee Kang-in and Alex Baena to secure the points, and they now have the chance to secure successive wins to start the 2026-27 La Liga campaign at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.

Villarreal, currently 8th with 1 point, are under the new management of Inigo Perez. They enter this fixture following a 2-2 draw away at Racing Santander. Despite their opening day stalemate, the Yellow Submarine are preparing for Champions League football this season following their third-place finish last term and will be desperate to close the two-point gap to the European places.

Head-to-head history

Historical encounters have been surprisingly difficult for the Madrid giants, who have won only 17 of their last 50 matches against Villarreal. The most recent meeting in May 2026 saw Villarreal dismantle Atletico 5-1, and the visitors also boast a 2-0 win in the Spanish capital as recently as August 2022.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Villarreal are currently on a four-game unbeaten streak across all competitions.
  • Atletico Madrid have struggled for consistency against this opposition, winning just one of the last five meetings.
  • The last encounter between these two clubs produced a staggering six goals.
  • Villarreal finished last season three points ahead of Atletico Madrid in the final standings.
Key players & missing men

Lee Kang-in is the man in form for the hosts after scoring from the bench on the opening weekend, while summer signing Alex Baena is also off the mark. However, Simeone faces a selection headache with Alexander Sorloth, Cristian Romero, Morten Hjulmand, and Thomas Lemar all ruled out through injury. Villarreal are missing the suspended Alassane Diatta, while defender Sergi Cardona is a major doubt due to physical discomfort.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Atletico Madrid1.8
–
1.1Villarreal
Season average total: 2.82 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Atletico Madrid winDrawVillarreal win
Market call
Double chance : Atletico Madrid or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Atletico Madrid
1828
Villarreal
1759

Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 68 rating points clear of Villarreal.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
Goals scored
2.00
Expected (xG)
1.94
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
VillarrealVillarreal
Goals scored
1.30
Expected (xG)
2.38
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Atletico MadridAtletico MadridVillarrealVillarreal
2.00Goals scored / game1.36
0.73Goals conceded / game1.36
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Atletico Madrid 11 games, Villarreal 11 games.

Atletico MadridAtletico MadridVillarrealVillarreal
55%Games with a clean sheet9%
9%Games they failed to score36%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Atletico Madrid
2–2
Villarreal
Villarreal
5–1
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
2–0
Villarreal
Atletico Madrid
1–1
Villarreal
Villarreal
2–2
Atletico Madrid
Form check

Their recent form.

Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
On a strong winning run
Last 5
5W · 0D · 0L
LevantevAtletico Madrid
0–2
W
Atletico MadridvDeportivo La Coruna
1–0
W
EspanyolvAtletico Madrid
0–1
W
AlavesvAtletico Madrid
1–2
W
Atletico MadridvReal Madrid
2–1
W
Villarreal
Villarreal
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
VillarrealvEspanyol
0–1
L
ValenciavVillarreal
1–2
W
VillarrealvElche
0–0
D
Real MadridvVillarreal
1–0
L
VillarrealvLevante
3–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
11
10
0
1
+34
30
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
11
9
1
1
+14
28
3
Real MadridReal Madrid
11
9
0
2
+18
27
4
Real BetisReal Betis
11
7
2
2
+3
23
5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
11
6
1
4
+0
19
6
SevillaSevilla
11
5
2
4
-2
17
7
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
10
4
3
3
+4
15
8
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
11
3
5
3
+1
14
9
VillarrealVillarreal
11
3
3
5
+0
12
10
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
11
2
6
3
+0
12
11
AlavesAlaves
11
3
3
5
-2
12
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
10
3
3
4
-5
12
13
GetafeGetafe
11
3
3
5
-8
12
14
EspanyolEspanyol
11
3
2
6
-1
11
15
OsasunaOsasuna
11
3
2
6
-11
11
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
11
3
2
6
-14
11
17
ElcheElche
11
2
4
5
-4
10
18
LevanteLevante
11
2
4
5
-5
10
19
ValenciaValencia
11
2
3
6
-9
9
20
MalagaMalaga
11
0
5
6
-13
5