Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Brazil)
·
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
7th · 40 pts·DWLWD
vs
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 18 pts
The story

Atletico-MG host Chapecoense with both seeking crucial points

Atletico-MG look to solidify their Copa Sudamericana position against a Chapecoense side desperate to escape the relegation zone with 12 games remaining.

Match news & current form

Atletico-MG sit 7th in Serie A with 39 points, holding a four-point cushion within the Copa Sudamericana places. Eduardo Domínguez’s side arrive with significant momentum after a 3-1 home win against Fluminense and a dramatic penalty shootout victory over Santos to reach the Conmebol Sul-Americana semi-finals. They have won three of their last five league matches, including dominant home displays against Gremio and Vitoria.

Chapecoense remain rooted to the bottom of the table in 20th place with 17 points. Manager Gilmar Dal Pozzo is under immense pressure to bridge the gap to safety after consecutive 2-1 defeats against Internacional and Corinthians. Despite their position, they have shown flashes of life recently, securing a 1-0 win over Sao Paulo and a 2-1 away victory at Corinthians earlier in the month.

Head-to-head history

The historical record between these clubs is remarkably balanced with seven wins for Atletico-MG and five for Chapecoense. However, the most recent encounter on 2nd April 2026 saw Atletico-MG dominate in a 4-0 away victory. Chapecoense's last win in this fixture was a 2-0 success in October 2019.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Atletico-MG have won their last three home matches in Serie A, scoring eight goals in that period.
  • Chapecoense have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league outings.
  • The last meeting between these two sides in 2026 produced four goals, all for the home side today.
  • Atletico-MG have scored three or more goals in three of their last five matches across all competitions.
Key players & missing men

Atletico-MG will be without Everson, T. Perez, and Ruan Tressoldi, while Reinier is also listed as an absence despite appearing in some probable lineups. Eduardo Domínguez is expected to rely on Bernard and Tomás Cuello to lead the attack. Chapecoense face a significant selection crisis with six players sidelined, including Eduardo Doma, Heitor, Joao Paulo, Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, and Robert Conceicao.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Atletico-MG1.7
1.0Chapecoense-sc
Season average total: 2.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Atletico-MG winDrawChapecoense-sc win
Market call
Double chance : Atletico-MG or Draw
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Atletico-MGAtletico-MGChapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
1.33Goals scored / game1.07
1.19Goals conceded / game1.96
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Atletico-MG 27 games, Chapecoense-sc 27 games.

Atletico-MGAtletico-MGChapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
22%Games with a clean sheet7%
33%Games they failed to score30%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Atletico-MG
1–1
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
0–4
Atletico-MG
Chapecoense-sc
2–2
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
1–1
Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG
0–2
Chapecoense-SC
Form check

Their recent form.

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Atletico-MGvChapecoense-sc
1–1
D
Atletico-MGvFluminense
3–1
W
Sao PaulovAtletico-MG
2–0
L
Atletico-MGvVitoria
2–1
W
InternacionalvAtletico-MG
0–0
D
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc — recent form not recorded.
Last 5

No recent matches recorded.

League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
27
17
6
4
+31
57
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
28
16
9
3
+26
57
3
FluminenseFluminense
28
13
9
6
+8
48
4
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
27
13
7
7
+10
46
5
BahiaBahia
27
12
10
5
+9
46
6
CruzeiroCruzeiro
28
13
6
9
+2
45
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
27
11
7
9
+4
40
8
SantosSantos
27
10
8
9
+1
38
9
CoritibaCoritiba
28
10
8
10
-6
38
10
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
26
10
6
10
+3
36
11
Sao PauloSao Paulo
27
10
6
11
+2
36
12
BotafogoBotafogo
28
9
8
11
-4
35
13
VitoriaVitoria
28
9
6
13
-14
33
14
CorinthiansCorinthians
28
8
8
12
-3
32
15
MirassolMirassol
28
8
8
12
-9
32
16
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
27
8
7
12
-7
31
17
GremioGremio
28
7
8
13
-8
29
18
InternacionalInternacional
28
6
10
12
-6
28
19
RemoRemo
28
5
8
15
-15
23
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
27
3
9
15
-24
18