Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 17h
Serie A (Brazil)
·
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
6th · 50 pts·DWDWW
vs
—
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
3rd · 54 pts·WWLWW
The story

Atletico Mineiro host Cruzeiro in final stretch clash

Local bragging rights and continental positioning collide at Arena MRV as Atletico-MG aim to strengthen their Copa Sudamericana spot against a Cruzeiro side defending third place.

Match news & current form

Atletico-MG sit sixth in Serie A on 50 points, comfortably holding a place in the Copa Sudamericana spots with an 11-point buffer and seven games remaining. The hosts arrive in robust form, unbeaten in their last five league outings (W3, D2) after edging Coritiba 1-0 on home soil last time out.

Cruzeiro occupy third spot on 54 points, sitting 15 points clear inside the Copa Libertadores places with six fixtures left. They have claimed four victories from their last five league games, responding to a high-scoring 4-2 defeat at RB Bragantino by overcoming Remo 1-0 in their most recent encounter.

Head-to-head history

Atletico-MG hold the edge in recent derbies, winning 2-1 when the sides last clashed in September 2026. Across their last five meetings, Atletico-MG have registered three wins, one draw, and just one defeat, including a 3-1 away victory back in May 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last five league matches (W3, D2).
  • Atletico-MG have won three of their last four meetings against Cruzeiro.
  • Cruzeiro have won four of their last five Serie A fixtures.
  • The last two derbies between the sides at Arena MRV ended in 2-1 home victories for Atletico-MG.
Key players & missing men

Both squads head into this derby clash in clean health, with no absences or suspensions reported on either side ahead of Round 33.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Atletico-MG1.8
–
1.3Cruzeiro
Season average total: 3.06 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Atletico-MG winDrawCruzeiro win
Market call
Double chance : Atletico-MG or Draw
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Atletico-MGAtletico-MGCruzeiroCruzeiro
1.35Goals scored / game1.59
1.13Goals conceded / game1.44
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Atletico-MG 31 games, Cruzeiro 32 games.

Atletico-MGAtletico-MGCruzeiroCruzeiro
26%Games with a clean sheet22%
29%Games they failed to score13%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Atletico-MG
2–1
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
1–1
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
1–3
Atletico-MG
Cruzeiro
1–0
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
2–1
Cruzeiro
Form check

Their recent form.

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
Atletico-MGvCoritiba
1–0
W
Atletico-MGvSantos
2–1
W
Atletico ParanaensevAtletico-MG
2–2
D
Atletico-MGvRB Bragantino
1–0
W
Atletico-MGvChapecoense-sc
1–1
D
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
CruzeirovRemo
1–0
W
GremiovCruzeiro
2–4
W
RB BragantinovCruzeiro
4–2
L
CruzeirovSao Paulo
2–0
W
VitoriavCruzeiro
1–3
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
PalmeirasPalmeiras
32
20
9
3
+34
69
2
FlamengoFlamengo
31
20
7
4
+36
67
3
CruzeiroCruzeiro
32
16
6
10
+5
54
4
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
32
15
9
8
+12
54
5
FluminenseFluminense
32
14
9
9
+9
51
6
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
31
14
8
9
+7
50
7
BahiaBahia
32
13
11
8
+5
50
8
SantosSantos
32
12
10
10
+2
46
9
Sao PauloSao Paulo
32
12
7
13
+1
43
10
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
32
11
8
13
+1
41
11
BotafogoBotafogo
32
10
9
13
-7
39
12
CoritibaCoritiba
31
10
9
12
-11
39
13
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
31
10
8
13
-6
38
14
VitoriaVitoria
32
10
8
14
-11
38
15
MirassolMirassol
32
9
10
13
-8
37
16
InternacionalInternacional
32
8
11
13
-4
35
17
CorinthiansCorinthians
32
8
9
15
-8
33
18
GremioGremio
31
7
10
14
-10
31
19
RemoRemo
32
5
11
16
-16
26
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
31
4
9
18
-31
21