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Canadian Premier League (Canada)
·
Atlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa
3rd · 34 pts·LWDLL
vs
York United
York United
7th · 23 pts·LDDWL
The story

Atleti Chase Continental Security Against Prolific York Rivals

Atlético Ottawa look to cement their continental qualification spot against a York United side desperate to end a five-match winless slide and close the gap on the top three.

Match news & current form

Atlético Ottawa sit 3rd on 17 points and currently hold a continental qualification place with just two games remaining. Diego Mejía’s side has shown mixed momentum recently, bouncing back from a heavy home defeat to Cavalry with a dominant 3-1 victory over HFX Wanderers and a high-scoring win against Supra du Quebec. With their season reaching its climax, securing points here is vital to maintaining their top-three standing.

York United arrive in 6th place with 12 points, clinging to a continental spot with four games still to play. However, the 'Nine Stripes' are in a slump, having lost four of their last five matches while conceding 16 goals in that span. Following heavy defeats to Vancouver FC (0-4) and Cavalry FC (1-5), head coach Benjamín Mora is under pressure to find defensive stability and rediscover the form that saw them challenge the league leaders earlier in the campaign.

Head-to-head history

This Ontario rivalry reached new heights in 2025, with Ottawa holding the upper hand via three wins and a draw in all competitions. While their most recent league meeting ended in a goalless stalemate, the sides produced a classic 4-3 Canadian Championship quarter-final earlier in July. Ottawa have won three of the last four meetings, though every victory has been decided by a single goal.

Hot stats & streaks
  • York United have conceded three or more goals in each of their last four league matches.
  • Atlético Ottawa’s Samuel Salter has scored a club-record 11 goals this season; his next strike sets a new single-season milestone.
  • York’s Julian Altobelli has scored four goals in four matches against Ottawa this season, including goals in both previous trips to the capital.
  • The last five matches for York United have produced a total of 23 goals, an average of 4.6 per game.
Key players & missing men

All eyes are on the Golden Boot race as Samuel Salter, now Ottawa's all-time leading scorer, faces off against Julian Altobelli. For York, teenage attacker Shola Jimoh returns to TD Place, the site of his crucial 2024 playoff goal. Midfielder David Rodríguez remains the creative engine for the hosts, having recently earned Player of the Week honours. Both squads report no fresh injury concerns, allowing both managers to field their strongest lineups for this critical clash.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Atlético Ottawa vs York United and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Atlético Ottawa1.9
1.0York United
Season average total: 2.96 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Atlético Ottawa winDrawYork United win
Market call
Winner : Atlético Ottawa
Goals forecast
Over 1.5 goals
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Atlético OttawaAtlético OttawaYork UnitedYork United
1.48Goals scored / game1.43
1.70Goals conceded / game2.19
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Atlético Ottawa 23 games, York United 21 games.

Atlético OttawaAtlético OttawaYork UnitedYork United
17%Games with a clean sheet10%
22%Games they failed to score10%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Atlético Ottawa
2–1
York United
Atlético Ottawa
1–1
York United
York United
4–1
Atlético Ottawa
York United
2–2
Atlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa
0–0
York United
Form check

Their recent form.

Atlético Ottawa
Atlético Ottawa
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Atlético OttawavSupra du Quebec
0–2
L
ForgevAtlético Ottawa
3–0
L
Atlético OttawavPacific FC
0–0
D
Atlético OttawavYork United
2–1
W
Cavalry FCvAtlético Ottawa
3–1
L
York United
York United
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
HFX Wanderers FCvYork United
4–1
L
York UnitedvVancouver FC
3–1
W
York UnitedvPacific FC
3–3
D
ForgevYork United
1–1
D
Atlético OttawavYork United
2–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Canadian Premier League (Canada) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Cavalry FCCavalry FC
22
15
5
2
+29
50
2
ForgeForge
22
14
4
4
+18
46
3
Atlético OttawaAtlético Ottawa
23
10
4
9
-5
34
4
Vancouver FCVancouver FC
23
9
4
10
+2
31
5
HFX Wanderers FCHFX Wanderers FC
23
7
5
11
-3
26
6
Supra du QuebecSupra du Quebec
22
7
4
11
-7
25
7
York UnitedYork United
21
5
8
8
-16
23
8
Pacific FCPacific FC
22
1
8
13
-18
11