Winlytics.AI
Full time
Major League Soccer (USA)
·
Austin
Austin
11th · 30 pts·WDDWD
vs
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
4th · 44 pts·DWWWD
The story

Texas Derby stakes high as Austin host Dallas

FC Dallas travel to Q2 Stadium desperate to cement their top-six standing while Austin look to translate recent cup success back into league momentum.

Match news & current form

Austin FC return to MLS action following a high-confidence run in the Leagues Cup, where they recently dispatched Puebla 3-0 and saw Myrto Uzuni net a first-half hat-trick. However, their league form remains a concern, having suffered back-to-back defeats against Colorado and Houston, leaving them with four losses in their last five MLS outings.

FC Dallas arrive sitting 6th on 27 points, locked in a battle to maintain their European qualification spot with 28 games remaining in the season. Peter Luccin’s men have proved difficult to beat lately, losing just once in their last five matches, though a recent 0-0 draw against LA Galaxy highlighted a slight dip in their previous high-scoring away form.

Head-to-head history

The Texas Derby has been evenly contested at Q2 Stadium recently, with the last meeting ending in a 1-1 draw. Over the past seven encounters at this venue, Austin holds a slight edge with three victories compared to two for Dallas, alongside two stalemates.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Myrto Uzuni recently became only the second player in Austin FC history to record a hat-trick.
  • FC Dallas have secured back-to-back away wins against Colorado and San Jose before their recent draw in Los Angeles.
  • Austin goalkeeper Brad Stuver is chasing his third consecutive shutout in all competitions.
  • Seven of the last 10 FC Dallas away games have seen them score at least once, averaging 1.40 goals per match.
Key players & missing men

Petar Musa is the man to watch for the visitors, having banked 13 goals this season to become the league's standout finisher. Austin will rely on the creative duo of Facundo Torres and Myrto Uzuni, the latter of whom leads the team with six league goals. Austin are missing M. Desler, while Dallas travel without Daniel, Geovane Jesus, N. Norris, and A. A. Julio Santos.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Austin vs FC Dallas — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Austin vs FC Dallas and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Austin1.5
1.4FC Dallas
Season average total: 2.85 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Austin winDrawFC Dallas win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or FC Dallas
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AustinAustinFC DallasFC Dallas
1.23Goals scored / game1.88
1.69Goals conceded / game1.62
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Austin 26 games, FC Dallas 26 games.

AustinAustinFC DallasFC Dallas
19%Games with a clean sheet19%
23%Games they failed to score27%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

FC Dallas
0–0
Austin
Austin
1–2
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
2–0
Austin
Austin
1–1
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
3–1
Austin
Form check

Their recent form.

Austin
Austin
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
FC DallasvAustin
0–0
D
Vancouver WhitecapsvAustin
1–2
W
AustinvColorado Rapids
1–1
D
AustinvSan Jose Earthquakes
1–1
D
Portland TimbersvAustin
1–2
W
FC Dallas
FC Dallas
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
FC DallasvAustin
0–0
D
FC DallasvPortland Timbers
2–1
W
Minnesota United FCvFC Dallas
1–2
W
FC DallasvSporting Kansas City
4–3
W
St. Louis CityvFC Dallas
3–3
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Major League Soccer (USA) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps
25
15
4
6
+33
49
2
Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
26
13
5
8
+4
44
3
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
26
12
8
6
+9
44
4
FC DallasFC Dallas
26
12
8
6
+7
44
5
San Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes
26
12
6
8
+8
42
6
Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC
27
11
8
8
+14
41
7
Colorado RapidsColorado Rapids
26
11
3
12
+1
36
8
Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy
27
8
9
10
-8
33
9
Portland TimbersPortland Timbers
26
9
5
12
-1
32
10
San DiegoSan Diego
25
8
6
11
+0
30
11
AustinAustin
26
7
9
10
-12
30
12
Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake
25
8
5
12
-5
29
13
Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
24
7
8
9
-5
29
14
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
26
7
8
11
-7
29
15
Sporting Kansas CitySporting Kansas City
25
5
3
17
-34
18