Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 1d 18h
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Auxerre
Auxerre
14th · 10 pts·WLWDL
vs
—
Paris FC
Paris FC
4th · 17 pts·WLWLW
The story

Auxerre host high-flying Paris FC at Stade de l'Abbe-Deschamps

With nine games played, Paris FC arrive sitting fourth in the table looking to keep up their strong start, while 14th-placed Auxerre aim to tighten up at the back and build momentum at home.

Match news & current form

Auxerre sit 14th on 10 points after nine games, having endured a mixed start to the campaign. While they were held to a 1-1 draw by Le Mans last time out, they have shown resilience at home with victories over Nice (1-0) and Stade Brestois 29 (2-1). However, defensive fragility remains a glaring concern, with 23 goals conceded across nine rounds—the poorest return in Ligue 1.

Paris FC are enjoying an impressive start, perched fourth on 17 points through nine matches. Though they fell 2-1 away to Lens in their previous outing, they showed their attacking firepower just before that in a thrilling 4-3 win over Rennes. Having also claimed recent wins against Strasbourg and Monaco, they will be eager to quickly rebound on the road.

Head-to-head history

Recent meetings between these clubs have been evenly contested, with the last two encounters ending in draws, including a 0-0 stalemate at Auxerre in February 2026 and a 1-1 finish in November 2025. Prior to those ties, Auxerre recorded consecutive 2-0 victories over Paris FC across the 2023-24 season.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Auxerre have conceded 23 goals in nine league games this season, the most of any team in Ligue 1.
  • Paris FC's last two league fixtures have produced a combined 10 goals.
  • The last two competitive meetings between these sides finished level.
Key players & missing men

Paul Nardi will start in goal for Auxerre behind a backline tasked with containing Paris FC's frontline, with English forward Cameron Archer providing Auxerre's main goal threat at the other end. Paris FC will rely on experienced German goalkeeper Kevin Trapp between the posts. Neither side has any reported injury or suspension concerns ahead of the fixture.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Auxerre vs Paris FC and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Auxerre1.3
–
1.1Paris FC
Season average total: 2.38 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Auxerre winDrawParis FC win
Market call
Double chance : Auxerre or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Auxerre
1624
Paris FC
1629

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

AuxerreAuxerre
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
1.26
Clinical — scoring above their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Paris FCParis FC
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
1.80
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

AuxerreAuxerreParis FCParis FC
1.44Goals scored / game1.78
2.56Goals conceded / game1.11
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Auxerre 9 games, Paris FC 9 games.

AuxerreAuxerreParis FCParis FC
11%Games with a clean sheet33%
0%Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Paris FC
—
Auxerre
Auxerre
0–0
Paris FC
Paris FC
1–1
Auxerre
Auxerre
2–0
Paris FC
Paris FC
0–2
Auxerre
Form check

Their recent form.

Auxerre
Auxerre
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
StrasbourgvAuxerre
5–1
L
AuxerrevLe Mans
1–1
D
Le HavrevAuxerre
1–3
W
RennesvAuxerre
4–1
L
AuxerrevStade Brestois 29
2–1
W
Paris FC
Paris FC
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
Paris FCvMonaco
3–1
W
LensvParis FC
2–1
L
Paris FCvRennes
4–3
W
LorientvParis FC
1–0
L
Paris FCvStrasbourg
2–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
9
6
2
1
+11
20
2
LilleLille
9
5
3
1
+6
18
3
LyonLyon
9
5
2
2
+8
17
4
Paris FCParis FC
9
5
2
2
+6
17
5
RennesRennes
9
5
1
3
+1
16
6
MarseilleMarseille
9
5
0
4
+7
15
7
MonacoMonaco
9
4
3
2
+2
15
8
NiceNice
9
4
2
3
+1
14
9
LensLens
9
4
1
4
+3
13
10
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
9
3
3
3
+4
12
11
LorientLorient
9
3
3
3
-1
12
12
ToulouseToulouse
9
2
4
3
-1
10
13
StrasbourgStrasbourg
9
3
1
5
-2
10
14
AuxerreAuxerre
9
3
1
5
-10
10
15
AngersAngers
9
2
2
5
-8
8
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
9
2
2
5
-9
8
17
Le MansLe Mans
9
1
4
4
-7
7
18
Le HavreLe Havre
9
0
2
7
-11
2