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Bundesliga (Germany)
·
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
1st · 12 pts·WWWW
vs
—
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
16th · 3 pts·LLLW
The story

Dortmund hunt title start as Hamburg face top-flight test

Borussia Dortmund begin their quest for the Bundesliga title at Signal Iduna Park against a Hamburger SV side fighting to prove they belong in the top tier.

Match news & current form

Borussia Dortmund enter the new campaign sitting 2nd and firmly in the title race, though they must shake off the disappointment of a 2-1 defeat to Bayern Munich in the German Supercup on August 22. Despite that loss, BVB remain formidable at home, having secured 13 victories in their last 17 league outings at Signal Iduna Park.

Hamburger SV arrive as the 13th-placed side, technically inside the relegation zone at this early stage. However, Merlin Polzin’s men carry significant momentum from a 3-0 DFB-Pokal win over SC Verl last week. Having survived their first season back in the top flight following a seven-year absence, HSV are looking to improve on a poor historical start that saw them take just one point from their opening three games last term.

Head-to-head history

Dortmund have dominated this fixture recently, winning five of the last six meetings, including a 3-2 victory in March 2026. While Hamburg have struggled against BVB, failing to win in their last seven attempts, they do boast 13 historical victories at Signal Iduna Park across 59 visits.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Borussia Dortmund have won 83% of their last six home Bundesliga fixtures.
  • Hamburger SV have shown resilience on the road, winning four of their last six away matches.
  • The last meeting between these two sides was a five-goal thriller ending 3-2 to Dortmund.
  • BVB have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last two competitive home matches.
Key players & missing men

Serhou Guirassy leads the line for Dortmund as he looks to continue the form that kept BVB in the title hunt last season. The hosts will be without Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck, and Ramy Bensebaini, significantly weakening their defensive rotation. Hamburg are missing Miro Muheim, Warmed Omari, and Rossing-Lelesiit, but will rely on the attacking momentum gained from their three-goal haul in the Pokal.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Borussia Dortmund3.0
–
0.0Hamburger SV
Season average total: 3.00 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
50%
50%
0%
Borussia Dortmund winDrawHamburger SV win
Market call
Double chance : Borussia Dortmund or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Borussia Dortmund
1835
Hamburger SV
1602

Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 233 rating points clear of Hamburger SV.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
Goals scored
1.90
Expected (xG)
2.07
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.10
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Borussia DortmundBorussia DortmundHamburger SVHamburger SV
2.25Goals scored / game0.50
0.50Goals conceded / game3.25
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Borussia Dortmund 4 games, Hamburger SV 4 games.

Borussia DortmundBorussia DortmundHamburger SVHamburger SV
75%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score75%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Borussia Dortmund
2–0
Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
3–2
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
1–1
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
2–0
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
0–3
Borussia Dortmund
Form check

Their recent form.

Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 0D · 0L
VfB StuttgartvBorussia Dortmund
0–1
W
Borussia DortmundvSC Paderborn 07
3–0
W
1899 HoffenheimvBorussia Dortmund
2–3
W
Borussia DortmundvHamburger SV
2–0
W
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 0D · 3L
Hamburger SVv1. FC Köln
2–1
W
RB LeipzigvHamburger SV
5–0
L
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
0–5
L
Borussia DortmundvHamburger SV
2–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0