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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Botafogo
Botafogo
14th · 39 pts·LDWLL
vs
—
Fluminense
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts·WLLLW
The story

Clássico Vovô stakes high as Botafogo eye European spots

This historic derby at the Nilton Santos sees eighth-placed Botafogo looking to break into the European spots against a Fluminense side clinging to fourth.

Match news & current form

Botafogo enter this clash sitting eighth on 29 points, just two points adrift of the European qualification places with 20 games remaining. They have established themselves as a difficult side to break down, losing only one of their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a disciplined 1-0 away victory over Cruzeiro, following a scoreless draw with Vitoria at home.

Fluminense occupy fourth place with 34 points but have seen their momentum stall significantly. The visitors have failed to win any of their last five matches, recording four consecutive draws against Bahia, Gremio, RB Bragantino, and Cruzeiro. With 19 games left to play, their hold on a continental spot is under threat if they cannot convert these stalemates into victories.

Head-to-head history

The Clássico Vovô has recently been dominated by the home side; Botafogo have won four of the last five meetings hosted at the Nilton Santos. Historically, this fixture has been a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals scored in each of the last seven league encounters between these two rivals.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Botafogo have avoided defeat in 17 of their last 20 matches across all competitions.
  • Fluminense have recorded four draws in their last five league matches.
  • Botafogo are undefeated in 81% of their last 16 home fixtures.
  • Fluminense have won just one of their last eight Brasileiro Serie A matches.
Key players & missing men

Botafogo will be without Allan, Junior Santos, Kaio Pantaleao, and Alex Telles for this derby. Fluminense face a significant defensive void as veteran leader Thiago Silva is sidelined, joining J. Freytes, Matheus Reis, J. Millan, and John Kennedy on the list of absentees.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Botafogo vs Fluminense and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Botafogo1.6
–
1.3Fluminense
Season average total: 2.94 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Botafogo winDrawFluminense win
Market call
Double chance : Botafogo or Draw
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

BotafogoBotafogoFluminenseFluminense
1.36Goals scored / game1.58
1.61Goals conceded / game1.27
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Botafogo 33 games, Fluminense 33 games.

BotafogoBotafogoFluminenseFluminense
15%Games with a clean sheet18%
24%Games they failed to score12%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Botafogo
1–1
Fluminense
Fluminense
1–0
Botafogo
Botafogo
0–1
Fluminense
Fluminense
2–0
Botafogo
Botafogo
2–0
Fluminense
Form check

Their recent form.

Botafogo
Botafogo
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
RemovBotafogo
2–1
L
InternacionalvBotafogo
3–0
L
BotafogovChapecoense-sc
1–0
W
CoritibavBotafogo
1–1
D
BotafogovVasco DA Gama
1–2
L
Fluminense
Fluminense
Struggling for results
Last 5
2W · 0D · 3L
FluminensevInternacional
2–1
W
Chapecoense-scvFluminense
2–1
L
FluminensevSantos
1–2
L
FlamengovFluminense
1–0
L
FluminensevCoritiba
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
34
23
7
4
+42
76
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
33
20
10
3
+34
70
3
CruzeiroCruzeiro
33
17
6
10
+6
57
4
FluminenseFluminense
33
15
9
9
+10
54
5
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
34
15
9
10
+8
54
6
BahiaBahia
33
14
11
8
+6
53
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
33
14
8
11
+5
50
8
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
34
13
8
13
+5
47
9
SantosSantos
34
12
11
11
+1
47
10
Sao PauloSao Paulo
33
12
7
14
+0
43
11
CoritibaCoritiba
34
11
9
14
-11
42
12
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
33
11
8
14
-7
41
13
MirassolMirassol
34
10
10
14
-9
40
14
BotafogoBotafogo
33
10
9
14
-8
39
15
VitoriaVitoria
33
10
8
15
-13
38
16
InternacionalInternacional
34
9
11
14
-4
38
17
GremioGremio
34
9
10
15
-9
37
18
CorinthiansCorinthians
33
9
9
15
-6
36
19
RemoRemo
33
6
11
16
-15
29
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
33
4
9
20
-35
21