Winlytics.AI
Full time
Premier League (England)
·
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
17th · 3 pts·LDDDL
vs
Brentford
Brentford
4th · 9 pts·WDDDW
The story

Bournemouth seek first Premier League victory over high-pressing Brentford

Bournemouth aim to translate early-season leads into three points against a Brentford side currently occupying the final Europa League place.

Match news & current form

Bournemouth sit 15th on two points after three games, having seen leads evaporate in each of their opening fixtures. Despite a slow start in the league, the Cherries enter this contest following a dominant 4-0 EFL Cup victory over Lincoln City, where Ryan Christie netted a hat-trick to provide a much-needed boost for Rose's side.

Brentford occupy 5th place and the last Europa League spot with five points from a possible nine. Under head coach Keith Andrews, the Bees have maintained a relentless work rate, recording the third-highest proportion of high-intensity pressures in the division. They are currently on a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions following a 1-1 draw with Sunderland.

Head-to-head history

The historical record at the Vitality Stadium favours Bournemouth with 29 wins in 63 meetings, but the Premier League era tells a different story. The Cherries have never beaten Brentford in eight top-flight attempts, drawing three and losing five, including a 0-0 stalemate in their most recent encounter in March 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Bournemouth are seeking their first-ever Premier League win against Brentford at the ninth attempt.
  • Brentford are bidding to equal their joint-longest unbeaten run (6 games) since Keith Andrews was appointed head coach.
  • Kevin Schade has scored in his last two Premier League away appearances for the Bees.
  • Both teams have scored in 10 of Bournemouth’s last 12 home league matches.
  • Bournemouth have led in all three of their Premier League games this season but have yet to secure a win.
Key players & missing men

Ryan Christie is the man in form for the hosts following his midweek hat-trick, while Brentford's Igor Thiago is searching for his first league goal despite a high expected goals (xG) figure of 2.30. Bournemouth are without A. Adli, J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi, and V. Milosavljevic. Brentford face a defensive shortage with Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg sidelined, joining J. Dasilva, A. Milambo, and M. Jensen on the injury list.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Bournemouth1.3
1.4Brentford
Season average total: 2.67 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Bournemouth winDrawBrentford win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Brentford
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Bournemouth
1872
Brentford
1837

Bournemouth are the stronger side — 35 rating points clear of Brentford.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

BournemouthBournemouth
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.64
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
BrentfordBrentford
Goals scored
1.70
Expected (xG)
1.78
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

BournemouthBournemouthBrentfordBrentford
1.20Goals scored / game2.00
1.60Goals conceded / game0.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Bournemouth 5 games, Brentford 5 games.

BournemouthBournemouthBrentfordBrentford
0%Games with a clean sheet40%
20%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Bournemouth
2–2
Brentford
Bournemouth
0–0
Brentford
Brentford
4–1
Bournemouth
Bournemouth
0–2
Brentford
Bournemouth
1–2
Brentford
Form check

Their recent form.

Bournemouth
Bournemouth
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
BournemouthvLiverpool
0–1
L
BournemouthvBrentford
2–2
D
NewcastlevBournemouth
2–2
D
BournemouthvEverton
1–1
D
Manchester CityvBournemouth
2–1
L
Brentford
Brentford
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
BrentfordvChelsea
3–0
W
BournemouthvBrentford
2–2
D
BrentfordvSunderland
1–1
D
LeedsvBrentford
1–1
D
BrentfordvTottenham
3–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (England) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Manchester CityManchester City
5
5
0
0
+8
15
2
ArsenalArsenal
5
4
0
1
+4
12
3
BrightonBrighton
5
3
1
1
+11
10
4
BrentfordBrentford
5
2
3
0
+6
9
5
LeedsLeeds
5
2
3
0
+4
9
6
LiverpoolLiverpool
5
2
3
0
+3
9
7
EvertonEverton
5
2
3
0
+3
9
8
Hull CityHull City
5
2
2
1
+2
8
9
NewcastleNewcastle
5
2
2
1
+0
8
10
ChelseaChelsea
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
IpswichIpswich
5
2
0
3
-4
6
12
Manchester UnitedManchester United
5
1
2
2
+0
5
13
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
5
1
2
2
-1
5
14
SunderlandSunderland
5
1
1
3
-4
4
15
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5
1
1
3
-5
4
16
Aston VillaAston Villa
5
1
1
3
-5
4
17
BournemouthBournemouth
5
0
3
2
-2
3
18
CoventryCoventry
5
1
0
4
-9
3
19
FulhamFulham
5
0
2
3
-3
2
20
TottenhamTottenham
5
0
2
3
-6
2