Winlytics.AI
Full time
Premier League (England)
·
Brentford
Brentford
4th · 9 pts·WDDDW
vs
Chelsea
Chelsea
10th · 7 pts·WWLDL
The story

Unbeaten Brentford host Chelsea in high-scoring London derby

Seventh-placed Brentford look to preserve their unbeaten start against a Chelsea side transformed into the league’s most prolific entertainers under Xabi Alonso.

Match news & current form

Brentford sit 7th with 6 points after four games, maintaining an unbeaten start to the campaign (W1, D3). Keith Andrews' side comes into this fixture following three consecutive draws in the league, most recently a 2-2 at Bournemouth, though they secured a 1-2 cup win against Reading in midweek. The Bees have been aggressive in front of goal, ranking third in the division for shots per 90 minutes.

Chelsea occupy 6th place with 7 points, just one ahead of their hosts. New manager Xabi Alonso has overseen a highly volatile start; while the Blues lead the league for shots on target, they have picked up just one point from their last two matches following a 2-1 loss to Arsenal and a 2-2 draw with Hull City. Alonso’s tenure has been defined by goals, with 19 scored at either end across his first four Premier League games.

Head-to-head history

Recent history suggests a closely fought encounter, with three of the last five meetings between these clubs ending in draws. While Chelsea won the most recent clash 2-0 in January 2026, Brentford have proven difficult to beat at the Gtech Community Stadium, holding the Blues to 2-2 and 0-0 draws in their last two home league games.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Brentford are currently on a six-match unbeaten run across all competitions.
  • Chelsea’s matches have averaged nearly five goals per game since Xabi Alonso took charge.
  • Brentford have scored 15 goals in domestic competition this term, a total bettered only by Chelsea's 18.
  • The Bees are looking for their fourth straight top-flight draw.
Key players & missing men

Cole Palmer remains the focal point for Chelsea, having scored four goals in six appearances this season. He is supported by Morgan Rogers and Joao Pedro, though Pedro is listed among the absences for this trip alongside Moises Caicedo and Henderson. Brentford will be without N. Collins, M. Jensen, and S. van den Berg, placing more emphasis on an attack that has already produced 15 goals this season.

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We have published a signal on Brentford vs Chelsea — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Brentford vs Chelsea and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Brentford2.3
0.8Chelsea
Season average total: 3.16 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Brentford winDrawChelsea win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Chelsea
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Brentford
1837
Chelsea
1831

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

BrentfordBrentford
Goals scored
1.70
Expected (xG)
1.78
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
ChelseaChelsea
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.40
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

BrentfordBrentfordChelseaChelsea
2.00Goals scored / game2.00
0.80Goals conceded / game2.40
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Brentford 5 games, Chelsea 5 games.

BrentfordBrentfordChelseaChelsea
40%Games with a clean sheet0%
0%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Brentford
3–0
Chelsea
Chelsea
2–0
Brentford
Brentford
2–2
Chelsea
Brentford
0–0
Chelsea
Chelsea
2–1
Brentford
Form check

Their recent form.

Brentford
Brentford
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
BrentfordvChelsea
3–0
W
BournemouthvBrentford
2–2
D
BrentfordvSunderland
1–1
D
LeedsvBrentford
1–1
D
BrentfordvTottenham
3–0
W
Chelsea
Chelsea
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
BrentfordvChelsea
3–0
L
ChelseavHull City
2–2
D
ArsenalvChelsea
2–1
L
ChelseavBrighton
4–3
W
FulhamvChelsea
2–3
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (England) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Manchester CityManchester City
5
5
0
0
+8
15
2
ArsenalArsenal
5
4
0
1
+4
12
3
BrightonBrighton
5
3
1
1
+11
10
4
BrentfordBrentford
5
2
3
0
+6
9
5
LeedsLeeds
5
2
3
0
+4
9
6
LiverpoolLiverpool
5
2
3
0
+3
9
7
EvertonEverton
5
2
3
0
+3
9
8
Hull CityHull City
5
2
2
1
+2
8
9
NewcastleNewcastle
5
2
2
1
+0
8
10
ChelseaChelsea
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
IpswichIpswich
5
2
0
3
-4
6
12
Manchester UnitedManchester United
5
1
2
2
+0
5
13
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
5
1
2
2
-1
5
14
SunderlandSunderland
5
1
1
3
-4
4
15
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5
1
1
3
-5
4
16
Aston VillaAston Villa
5
1
1
3
-5
4
17
BournemouthBournemouth
5
0
3
2
-2
3
18
CoventryCoventry
5
1
0
4
-9
3
19
FulhamFulham
5
0
2
3
-3
2
20
TottenhamTottenham
5
0
2
3
-6
2