Winlytics.AI
Full time
La Liga (Spain)
·
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
10th · 12 pts·WDWDL
vs
—
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
7th · 15 pts·DDLWW
The story

Relegation zone battle as winless sides seek first victory

Two sides currently mired in the relegation zone meet at the Estadio de Balaídos as both Celta Vigo and Athletic Club search for their first three points of the new La Liga campaign.

Match news & current form

Celta Vigo sit 14th with just one point from their opening two matches. Claudio Giráldez’s side followed up a goalless draw at Valencia with a frustrating 2-1 home defeat to Osasuna on Thursday. They are currently inside the relegation zone with 36 games remaining to secure their top-flight status.

Athletic Club have endured an even tougher start under Edin Terzic, suffering back-to-back defeats against Sevilla and Barcelona. Currently 19th and without a point, the Basque side is looking to avoid a prolonged slump after missing out on European football last season for the first time since 2023.

Head-to-head history

The recent history between these clubs is perfectly balanced, with two wins apiece and one draw in their last five meetings. Their most recent encounter in May ended in a 1-1 stalemate where Iñaki Williams cancelled out Celta’s opening goal. Historically, Celta have held the upper hand at the Balaídos, winning 31 of their 68 home meetings against Athletic.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Athletic Club have lost two consecutive matches to start the season, conceding multiple goals in both fixtures.
  • Celta Vigo have failed to win their first two games of a campaign for the second successive year.
  • The home side has won nearly half of all historical meetings played at the Estadio de Balaídos (31 of 68).
  • Athletic Club have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last two league outings.
Key players & missing men

Celta Vigo must reshuffle their backline as defender Marcos Alonso serves a one-match suspension following his red card against Osasuna; Borja Iglesias also remains sidelined. Athletic Club arrive with a significant injury list, missing Dani Vivian, Aitor Gorosabel, and Beñat Prados Diaz, which further complicates Edin Terzic’s defensive setup. Iñaki Williams remains the focal point for the visitors, having scored in the most recent meeting between these two teams.

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Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Celta Vigo1.4
–
0.9Athletic Club
Season average total: 2.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Celta Vigo winDrawAthletic Club win
Market call
Double chance : Celta Vigo or Draw
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Celta Vigo
1701
Athletic Club
1678

Celta Vigo are the stronger side — 23 rating points clear of Athletic Club.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Celta VigoCelta Vigo
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.02
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.57
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Celta VigoCelta VigoAthletic ClubAthletic Club
0.91Goals scored / game1.40
0.91Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Celta Vigo 11 games, Athletic Club 10 games.

Celta VigoCelta VigoAthletic ClubAthletic Club
45%Games with a clean sheet50%
55%Games they failed to score30%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Celta Vigo
0–2
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
1–1
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
2–0
Athletic Club
Celta Vigo
1–2
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
3–1
Celta Vigo
Form check

Their recent form.

Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Rayo VallecanovCelta Vigo
3–0
L
Celta VigovReal Betis
0–0
D
Celta VigovAlaves
2–1
W
ElchevCelta Vigo
0–0
D
Celta VigovRacing Santander
5–0
W
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Athletic ClubvReal Sociedad
2–1
W
Athletic ClubvGetafe
4–0
W
LevantevAthletic Club
3–1
L
ValenciavAthletic Club
0–0
D
Athletic ClubvAlaves
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

La Liga (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
BarcelonaBarcelona
11
10
0
1
+34
30
2
Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid
11
9
1
1
+14
28
3
Real MadridReal Madrid
11
9
0
2
+18
27
4
Real BetisReal Betis
11
7
2
2
+3
23
5
Real SociedadReal Sociedad
11
6
1
4
+0
19
6
SevillaSevilla
11
5
2
4
-2
17
7
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
10
4
3
3
+4
15
8
Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna
11
3
5
3
+1
14
9
VillarrealVillarreal
11
3
3
5
+0
12
10
Celta VigoCelta Vigo
11
2
6
3
+0
12
11
AlavesAlaves
11
3
3
5
-2
12
12
Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
10
3
3
4
-5
12
13
GetafeGetafe
11
3
3
5
-8
12
14
EspanyolEspanyol
11
3
2
6
-1
11
15
OsasunaOsasuna
11
3
2
6
-11
11
16
Racing SantanderRacing Santander
11
3
2
6
-14
11
17
ElcheElche
11
2
4
5
-4
10
18
LevanteLevante
11
2
4
5
-5
10
19
ValenciaValencia
11
2
3
6
-9
9
20
MalagaMalaga
11
0
5
6
-13
5