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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
20th · 21 pts·LLLWL
vs
—
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
10th · 43 pts·LWWDL
The story

Chapecoense's survival fight meets São Paulo's fragile safety

Bottom-placed Chapecoense have 18 games to erase a massive deficit, while São Paulo remain just five points clear of the drop zone in a tense battle for Serie A survival.

Match news & current form

Chapecoense enter this fixture rooted to the foot of the table with just 11 points. They are winless in seven matches, though they showed significant fighting spirit in their last outing, a 3-3 draw against Bahia where they recovered from deficit despite having only 35% possession. Managerial pressure is mounting as they sit 20th, needing a drastic turnaround to bridge the gap to safety.

São Paulo are currently 13th and far from secure, holding 27 points with 18 games remaining. Dorival Junior’s side has struggled for momentum, recording no wins in their last five matches. Their last league game ended in a 1-1 draw against Coritiba, following a period where they were also knocked out of the cup by Juventude and are now balancing league survival with Copa Sudamericana commitments.

Head-to-head history

São Paulo have dominated this fixture recently, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters with three wins and two draws. This includes a victory earlier this year in March. Historically, Chapecoense have been more resilient at home, but they have struggled to turn that into three points against the Tricolor in recent seasons.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Chapecoense are currently on a seven-match winless streak in Serie A.
  • Marcinho has been the bright spark for the hosts, netting two goals in his last five league appearances.
  • São Paulo holds a 50% win rate in historical head-to-head encounters against Chapecoense in the top flight.
  • The visitors have failed to win any of their last five matches across all competitions.
Key players & missing men

Chapecoense face a significant selection crisis with six players sidelined, including Yannick Bolasie, Bruno Tubarao, and Joao Paulo. They will rely heavily on Marcinho and Giovanni Augusto, both of whom found the net in the recent draw with Bahia. São Paulo are also missing key leadership and flair, with Lucas Moura, Lucca Marques, and veteran defender Rafael Toloi all unavailable for the trip to Chapecó.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Chapecoense-sc vs Sao Paulo and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Chapecoense-sc1.5
–
1.5Sao Paulo
Season average total: 3.01 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Chapecoense-sc winDrawSao Paulo win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Sao Paulo
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-scSao PauloSao Paulo
1.00Goals scored / game1.18
2.06Goals conceded / game1.18
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Chapecoense-sc 32 games, Sao Paulo 33 games.

Chapecoense-scChapecoense-scSao PauloSao Paulo
6%Games with a clean sheet21%
34%Games they failed to score21%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Chapecoense-sc
1–0
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
2–0
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
1–1
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
1–1
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-SC
0–3
Sao Paulo
Form check

Their recent form.

Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense-sc
Losing form badly
Last 5
1W · 0D · 4L
RB BragantinovChapecoense-sc
3–0
L
Chapecoense-scvFluminense
2–1
W
BotafogovChapecoense-sc
1–0
L
Chapecoense-scvAtletico Paranaense
1–4
L
VitoriavChapecoense-sc
4–0
L
Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
BahiavSao Paulo
3–2
L
MirassolvSao Paulo
1–1
D
Sao PaulovVasco DA Gama
1–0
W
Sao PaulovVitoria
2–1
W
CruzeirovSao Paulo
2–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
34
23
7
4
+42
76
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
33
20
10
3
+34
70
3
CruzeiroCruzeiro
33
17
6
10
+6
57
4
FluminenseFluminense
33
15
9
9
+10
54
5
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
34
15
9
10
+8
54
6
BahiaBahia
33
14
11
8
+6
53
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
33
14
8
11
+5
50
8
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
34
13
8
13
+5
47
9
SantosSantos
34
12
11
11
+1
47
10
Sao PauloSao Paulo
33
12
7
14
+0
43
11
CoritibaCoritiba
34
11
9
14
-11
42
12
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
33
11
8
14
-7
41
13
MirassolMirassol
34
10
10
14
-9
40
14
BotafogoBotafogo
33
10
9
14
-8
39
15
VitoriaVitoria
33
10
8
15
-13
38
16
InternacionalInternacional
34
9
11
14
-4
38
17
GremioGremio
34
9
10
15
-9
37
18
CorinthiansCorinthians
33
9
9
15
-6
36
19
RemoRemo
33
6
11
16
-15
29
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
33
4
9
20
-35
21