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Liga MX (Mexico)
·
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
11th · 20 pts·WLLLL
vs
—
Toluca
Toluca
5th · 24 pts·DLDDD
The story

Corregidora Clash as Queretaro Challenge High-Flying Toluca

This match serves as a critical early-season test for two sides separated by just three places in the table, with continental qualification spots already coming into focus.

Match news & current form

Club Queretaro enter this fixture in 8th place, sitting just outside the European places with 30 games left to play. They have found a rhythm recently, securing seven points from a possible twelve, including a notable 3-2 home victory over Tigres UANL and a gritty 0-0 draw away at Pumas last time out. However, defensive lapses remain a concern, having surrendered a two-goal lead in their previous home match.

Toluca currently occupy 5th place and hold a continental qualification spot. While they have matched Queretaro's recent record of two wins and a draw in four games, their momentum was slightly checked by a 0-0 draw against Atlante FC. They remain one of the league's most balanced sides but face a psychological hurdle at a venue where their clinical edge often deserts them.

Head-to-head history

While Toluca have generally held the upper hand historically with five wins in the last ten meetings, Queretaro claimed the most recent encounter with a 1-0 victory in April 2026. The rivalry has been characterized by Toluca's difficulty in scoring at Queretaro's home ground, often resulting in tighter affairs than league positions suggest.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Queretaro have finished under 2.5 goals in the majority of their last nine matches.
  • Toluca have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 Liga MX fixtures.
  • Toluca hold a slight aerial advantage, recording double the headed goals of Queretaro in recent matches.
  • Queretaro have conceded at least once in three of their four opening Liga MX games this season.
Key players & missing men

Both squads appear to be at full strength for this Friday night clash, with no injuries or suspensions reported for either side. Queretaro will look to tighten a backline that has struggled to hold leads, while Toluca rely on their set-piece efficiency to break down stubborn low blocks.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Club Queretaro vs Toluca and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Club Queretaro1.3
–
1.6Toluca
Season average total: 2.85 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Club Queretaro winDrawToluca win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Toluca
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Club QueretaroClub QueretaroTolucaToluca
1.29Goals scored / game2.07
1.50Goals conceded / game1.40
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Club Queretaro 14 games, Toluca 15 games.

Club QueretaroClub QueretaroTolucaToluca
29%Games with a clean sheet27%
21%Games they failed to score7%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Club Queretaro
1–2
Toluca
Club Queretaro
1–0
Toluca
Toluca
4–0
Club Queretaro
Toluca
5–0
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
0–1
Toluca
Form check

Their recent form.

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
Losing form badly
Last 5
1W · 0D · 4L
FC JuarezvClub Queretaro
3–1
L
Club QueretarovCruz Azul
1–3
L
Atletico San LuisvClub Queretaro
2–1
L
Santos LagunavClub Queretaro
5–0
L
Club QueretarovAtlante FC
2–0
W
Toluca
Toluca
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
0W · 4D · 1L
LeonvToluca
1–1
D
TolucavClub Tijuana
2–2
D
TolucavAtletico San Luis
1–1
D
Tigres UANLvToluca
3–2
L
Cruz AzulvToluca
3–3
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Liga MX (Mexico) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Club AmericaClub America
15
8
5
2
+15
29
2
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
15
8
5
2
+11
29
3
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
15
9
2
4
+10
29
4
AtlasAtlas
15
8
3
4
+0
27
5
TolucaToluca
15
6
6
3
+10
24
6
Club TijuanaClub Tijuana
15
5
7
3
+4
22
7
LeonLeon
15
6
4
5
+2
22
8
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
15
7
1
7
+1
22
9
MonterreyMonterrey
14
6
3
5
+5
21
10
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
15
5
5
5
-2
20
11
Club QueretaroClub Queretaro
14
6
2
6
-3
20
12
CF PachucaCF Pachuca
15
5
4
6
+6
19
13
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
15
5
4
6
-4
19
14
PueblaPuebla
15
4
4
7
-6
16
15
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
15
3
6
6
-7
15
16
Atlante FCAtlante FC
15
3
5
7
-8
14
17
NecaxaNecaxa
15
2
4
9
-12
10
18
FC JuarezFC Juarez
15
2
2
11
-22
8