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Liga MX (Mexico)
·
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
9th · 13 pts·DLWWD
vs
Toluca
Toluca
1st · 19 pts·WWWWL
The story

Corregidora Clash as Queretaro Challenge High-Flying Toluca

This match serves as a critical early-season test for two sides separated by just three places in the table, with continental qualification spots already coming into focus.

Match news & current form

Club Queretaro enter this fixture in 8th place, sitting just outside the European places with 30 games left to play. They have found a rhythm recently, securing seven points from a possible twelve, including a notable 3-2 home victory over Tigres UANL and a gritty 0-0 draw away at Pumas last time out. However, defensive lapses remain a concern, having surrendered a two-goal lead in their previous home match.

Toluca currently occupy 5th place and hold a continental qualification spot. While they have matched Queretaro's recent record of two wins and a draw in four games, their momentum was slightly checked by a 0-0 draw against Atlante FC. They remain one of the league's most balanced sides but face a psychological hurdle at a venue where their clinical edge often deserts them.

Head-to-head history

While Toluca have generally held the upper hand historically with five wins in the last ten meetings, Queretaro claimed the most recent encounter with a 1-0 victory in April 2026. The rivalry has been characterized by Toluca's difficulty in scoring at Queretaro's home ground, often resulting in tighter affairs than league positions suggest.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Queretaro have finished under 2.5 goals in the majority of their last nine matches.
  • Toluca have seen under 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 Liga MX fixtures.
  • Toluca hold a slight aerial advantage, recording double the headed goals of Queretaro in recent matches.
  • Queretaro have conceded at least once in three of their four opening Liga MX games this season.
Key players & missing men

Both squads appear to be at full strength for this Friday night clash, with no injuries or suspensions reported for either side. Queretaro will look to tighten a backline that has struggled to hold leads, while Toluca rely on their set-piece efficiency to break down stubborn low blocks.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Club Queretaro vs Toluca and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Club Queretaro0.8
1.5Toluca
Season average total: 2.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Club Queretaro winDrawToluca win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Toluca
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Club QueretaroClub QueretaroTolucaToluca
1.43Goals scored / game2.22
1.00Goals conceded / game1.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Club Queretaro 7 games, Toluca 9 games.

Club QueretaroClub QueretaroTolucaToluca
29%Games with a clean sheet44%
29%Games they failed to score11%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Club Queretaro
1–2
Toluca
Club Queretaro
1–0
Toluca
Toluca
4–0
Club Queretaro
Toluca
5–0
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
0–1
Toluca
Form check

Their recent form.

Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Club QueretarovLeon
1–1
D
Club TijuanavClub Queretaro
0–1
W
AtlasvClub Queretaro
1–3
W
Club QueretarovToluca
1–2
L
U.N.A.M. - PumasvClub Queretaro
0–0
D
Toluca
Toluca
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
TolucavSantos Laguna
2–3
L
PueblavToluca
0–1
W
TolucavAtlas
5–2
W
TolucavFC Juarez
4–0
W
Club QueretarovToluca
1–2
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Liga MX (Mexico) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
TolucaToluca
9
6
1
2
+11
19
2
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
9
5
3
1
+9
18
3
Club AmericaClub America
8
5
2
1
+9
17
4
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
9
5
0
4
+1
15
5
Club TijuanaClub Tijuana
8
4
2
2
+2
14
6
PueblaPuebla
9
4
2
3
+0
14
7
AtlasAtlas
9
4
2
3
-2
14
8
MonterreyMonterrey
8
4
1
3
+4
13
9
Club QueretaroClub Queretaro
7
4
1
2
+3
13
10
LeonLeon
8
4
1
3
+2
13
11
CF PachucaCF Pachuca
9
3
3
3
+5
12
12
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
9
3
3
3
-1
12
13
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
9
2
3
4
-5
9
14
Atlante FCAtlante FC
9
1
5
3
-5
8
15
NecaxaNecaxa
9
2
2
5
-6
8
16
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
9
1
4
4
-4
7
17
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
9
2
1
6
-6
7
18
FC JuarezFC Juarez
9
1
0
8
-17
3