Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 20h
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
13th · 5 pts·LDWDL
vs
—
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
8th · 7 pts·DWLWL
The story

Schalke host Mainz looking to build early momentum

With only five games played of the 34-match season, FC Schalke 04 look to climb from 13th while eighth-placed FSV Mainz 05 aim to push on from a positive start.

Match news & current form

Schalke sit 13th on five points after five games and are still finding their feet. They ground out a 0-0 home draw against SV Elversberg last time out, following a solid 3-1 away win at Union Berlin and a resilient 0-0 stalemate against Bayern München.

Mainz occupy eighth place on seven points after an encouraging opening spell. They travel to Gelsenkirchen on the back of a wild 4-3 victory away at Borussia Mönchengladbach, rebounding immediately from a 3-1 home defeat to Eintracht Frankfurt.

Head-to-head history

Schalke have edged the recent meetings between the sides, winning 3-2 away at Mainz in May 2023 and taking a 1-0 victory at home in November 2022. Across the last five recorded encounters, Schalke are unbeaten with two wins and three draws.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Mainz have scored nine goals across their last two away fixtures, beating Gladbach 4-3 and Hamburger SV 5-0.
  • Schalke have kept back-to-back clean sheets at home following consecutive 0-0 draws with SV Elversberg and Bayern München.
  • Schalke have not lost to Mainz in their last five head-to-head clashes, stretching back to February 2020.
Key players & missing men

Loris Karius is expected to start between the posts for Schalke, opposite Mainz stopper Robin Zentner. Neither side reports any fresh suspension or injury absentees from the official lists ahead of kickoff.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
FC Schalke 040.8
–
2.3FSV Mainz 05
Season average total: 3.00 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
FC Schalke 04 winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win
Market call
Double chance : FC Schalke 04 or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

FC Schalke 04
1520
FSV Mainz 05
1672

FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side — 152 rating points clear of FC Schalke 04.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

No xG data for FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Goals scored
2.20
Expected (xG)
2.72
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
0.80Goals scored / game2.60
1.20Goals conceded / game2.00
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — FC Schalke 04 5 games, FSV Mainz 05 5 games.

FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
40%Games with a clean sheet40%
60%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

FSV Mainz 05
2–3
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1–0
FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
0–0
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
2–2
FC Schalke 04
FSV Mainz 05
0–0
FC Schalke 04
Form check

Their recent form.

FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
SC FreiburgvFC Schalke 04
2–1
L
FC Schalke 04vSV Elversberg
0–0
D
Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04
1–3
W
FC Schalke 04vBayern München
0–0
D
FC AugsburgvFC Schalke 04
3–0
L
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
FSV Mainz 05vBayer Leverkusen
3–4
L
Borussia MönchengladbachvFSV Mainz 05
3–4
W
FSV Mainz 05vEintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
0–5
W
FSV Mainz 05vSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
5
4
1
0
+10
13
2
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
Bayern MünchenBayern München
5
3
2
0
+12
11
4
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
5
3
1
1
+6
10
5
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
5
3
0
2
+10
9
6
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
5
2
2
1
+5
8
7
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
5
2
2
1
+0
8
8
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
5
2
1
2
+3
7
9
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
10
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
5
2
0
3
-1
6
12
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
5
2
0
3
-10
6
13
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
5
1
2
2
-7
5
15
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
5
1
1
3
-4
4
16
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
5
1
1
3
-12
4
17
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
5
1
0
4
-4
3
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
5
0
0
5
-11
0