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Eliteserien (Norway)
·
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
8th · 28 pts·WWLDD
vs
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
6th · 32 pts·DLWWL
The story

Lillestrom seek continental security against bogey side Fredrikstad

Lillestrom travel to Fredrikstad Stadion looking to defend their European qualification spot against a home side only three points adrift of the top six.

Match news & current form

Fredrikstad sit 10th in the Eliteserien with 14 points, but the table remains congested; a win here could move them within touching distance of the European places. They have found consistency at home recently, securing successive victories at Fredrikstad Stadion against Start and Ham-Kam.

Lillestrom occupy 4th place and currently hold a continental qualification spot, yet their momentum stalled before the season break. Hans Erik Odegaard's side have suffered three defeats in their last five outings, including a 2-0 loss to Ham-Kam last time out, leaving them desperate to rediscover the form that has seen them claim the league's third-best away record.

Head-to-head history

The historical edge sits firmly with the hosts in recent years. Fredrikstad have won each of their last three league meetings against Lillestrom, including a 2-1 victory in their most recent Eliteserien encounter in October 2024.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Fredrikstad are chasing a third consecutive Eliteserien home victory.
  • Lillestrom have lost three of their last five league matches.
  • The Canaries have failed to beat Fredrikstad in league competition since before October 2024.
  • Lillestrom returned to the top flight this year after a shock relegation to the second tier in 2024.
Key players & missing men

Fredrikstad forward Johannes Hummelvoll-Nunez is a key figure to watch; having dealt with a lower leg issue, he is expected to be available for this clash. Lillestrom will rely on their travel-hardened squad that has already picked up 10 points on the road this term, though no fresh injury concerns have been reported for the visitors.

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We have published a signal on Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Fredrikstad1.3
1.1Lillestrom
Season average total: 2.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Fredrikstad winDrawLillestrom win
Market call
Double chance : Fredrikstad or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Fredrikstad
1413
Lillestrom
1363

Fredrikstad are the stronger side — 49 rating points clear of Lillestrom.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

FredrikstadFredrikstadLillestromLillestrom
1.19Goals scored / game1.33
1.52Goals conceded / game1.38
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Fredrikstad 21 games, Lillestrom 21 games.

FredrikstadFredrikstadLillestromLillestrom
14%Games with a clean sheet29%
24%Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lillestrom
1–4
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
0–2
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
2–2
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1–1
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
1–0
Lillestrom
Form check

Their recent form.

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
ValerengavFredrikstad
1–1
D
FredrikstadvSarpsborg 08 FF
1–1
D
FredrikstadvBodo/Glimt
1–2
L
LillestromvFredrikstad
1–4
W
FredrikstadvKristiansund BK
1–0
W
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
VikingvLillestrom
3–0
L
LillestromvValerenga
2–0
W
BrannvLillestrom
1–2
W
LillestromvFredrikstad
1–4
L
KFUM OslovLillestrom
1–1
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eliteserien (Norway) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
VikingViking
21
16
2
3
+34
50
2
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt
21
16
2
3
+34
50
3
TromsoTromso
21
11
5
5
+11
38
4
MoldeMolde
21
11
3
7
+12
36
5
RosenborgRosenborg
21
10
3
8
+9
33
6
LillestromLillestrom
21
10
2
9
-1
32
7
BrannBrann
21
9
2
10
+7
29
8
FredrikstadFredrikstad
21
8
4
9
-7
28
9
Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
21
6
7
8
-5
25
10
KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo
21
7
4
10
-10
25
11
SandefjordSandefjord
21
6
5
10
-6
23
12
ValerengaValerenga
21
6
5
10
-9
23
13
Ham-KamHam-Kam
21
6
5
10
-15
23
14
AalesundAalesund
21
4
9
8
-13
21
15
Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK
21
5
4
12
-19
19
16
StartStart
21
4
4
13
-22
16