Winlytics.AI
Full time
Eliteserien (Norway)
·
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
8th · 28 pts·WWLDD
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
9th · 25 pts·LDDDL
The story

Conference League chase intensifies in Østfold derby

Both sides are fighting to close the gap on the Conference League places as the Eliteserien enters its final 11 games.

Match news & current form

Fredrikstad enter this derby in 8th place on 26 points, currently trailing the Conference League places by seven points. Despite a narrow 1-2 loss to Bodo/Glimt in their last outing, they have been in excellent form with four wins from their last five, including three 1-0 victories against Start, Sandefjord, and Kristiansund BK.

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit just two points behind their rivals in 9th, nine points adrift of the Conference League spots. Under head coach Even Sel, the visitors are struggling for momentum, winless in five matches (D3, L2) following a 2-2 draw with Valerenga and a high-scoring 3-3 draw against Molde.

Head-to-head history

The recent history between these rivals is tightly contested, though Fredrikstad have held the upper hand in the long term, winning three of the last five meetings. However, Sarpsborg 08 FF claimed a 2-1 victory in the most recent encounter on 9 May 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Fredrikstad have secured two home victories in their most recent home head-to-heads against Sarpsborg.
  • Sarpsborg 08 FF have conceded seven goals across their last five fixtures.
  • Fredrikstad have kept three clean sheets in their last five league matches.
  • The visitors have failed to record a win in over a month, dating back five matches.
Key players & missing men

Fredrikstad utilize a unique captaincy group consisting of Solomon Owusu, Simen Rafn, and Sondre Sørløkk, though they will be without group member Sigurd Kvile due to injury. Other confirmed absences for the hosts include J. Nysveen, K. Okpaleke, and F. Ghebreyohannes. Sarpsborg 08 FF travel without F. Carstensen, S. Rosted, and M. Svenningsen Gronn.

Subscribers only

Our signal for this match is locked.

We have published a signal on Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg 08 FF and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

Unlock every market
Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Fredrikstad1.4
1.1Sarpsborg 08 FF
Season average total: 2.52 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Fredrikstad winDrawSarpsborg 08 FF win
Market call
Double chance : Fredrikstad or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Fredrikstad
1413
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1403

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

FredrikstadFredrikstadSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
1.19Goals scored / game1.14
1.52Goals conceded / game1.38
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Fredrikstad 21 games, Sarpsborg 08 FF 21 games.

FredrikstadFredrikstadSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
14%Games with a clean sheet24%
24%Games they failed to score24%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Fredrikstad
1–1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2–1
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
2–1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
0–2
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
1–1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Form check

Their recent form.

Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
ValerengavFredrikstad
1–1
D
FredrikstadvSarpsborg 08 FF
1–1
D
FredrikstadvBodo/Glimt
1–2
L
LillestromvFredrikstad
1–4
W
FredrikstadvKristiansund BK
1–0
W
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
Sarpsborg 08 FFvKFUM Oslo
1–3
L
FredrikstadvSarpsborg 08 FF
1–1
D
Sarpsborg 08 FFvValerenga
2–2
D
TromsovSarpsborg 08 FF
0–0
D
Sarpsborg 08 FFvSandefjord
1–2
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Eliteserien (Norway) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
VikingViking
21
16
2
3
+34
50
2
Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt
21
16
2
3
+34
50
3
TromsoTromso
21
11
5
5
+11
38
4
MoldeMolde
21
11
3
7
+12
36
5
RosenborgRosenborg
21
10
3
8
+9
33
6
LillestromLillestrom
21
10
2
9
-1
32
7
BrannBrann
21
9
2
10
+7
29
8
FredrikstadFredrikstad
21
8
4
9
-7
28
9
Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF
21
6
7
8
-5
25
10
KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo
21
7
4
10
-10
25
11
SandefjordSandefjord
21
6
5
10
-6
23
12
ValerengaValerenga
21
6
5
10
-9
23
13
Ham-KamHam-Kam
21
6
5
10
-15
23
14
AalesundAalesund
21
4
9
8
-13
21
15
Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK
21
5
4
12
-19
19
16
StartStart
21
4
4
13
-22
16