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Full time
Bundesliga (Germany)
·
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
6th · 7 pts·DWLW
vs
—
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
12th · 4 pts·DLLW
The story

Mainz eye opening day dominance against winless Paderborn

Mainz 05 begin their campaign looking to maintain a perfect home record against a Paderborn side already fighting to escape the relegation zone.

Match news & current form

FSV Mainz 05 enter the season 10th in the table with 34 games to challenge for European places. Urs Fischer’s side carries significant momentum into the opener, remaining unbeaten throughout pre-season with seven wins and a draw. Their final competitive warm-up saw them dismantle Krieschow 9-0, following a solid 2-1 victory over Bournemouth.

SC Paderborn 07 start the season 18th and inside the relegation zone, facing a 34-game battle for survival. Despite the stakes, they carry their own momentum with four wins from their last five matches, most recently securing a 4-2 victory against Phönix Lübeck. However, manager Urs Fischer has a mixed personal record against Paderborn, with just one win in five previous encounters.

Head-to-head history

Mainz have historically dominated this fixture, remaining unbeaten in all four previous Bundesliga meetings with three wins and a draw. At the Mewa Arena, the record is even more one-sided, with Mainz winning all three of their home matches against Paderborn.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Mainz have never lost a Bundesliga match against SC Paderborn 07.
  • SC Paderborn 07 have never won a competitive match against Mainz in six total attempts.
  • Mainz scored three or more goals in six of their eight pre-season friendlies this summer.
  • Paderborn have scored two or more goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions.
Key players & missing men

Nadiem Amiri provides a major boost for Mainz after committing his future to the club, while defender Silvan Widmer is back in training and expected to feature. However, the hosts will be without E. Martel, Silas, and B. Hollerbach. Paderborn face a deeper availability crisis, missing N. Awortwie-Grant, S. Klaas, S. Michel, T. Gayret, and M. Hoffmeier.

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We have published a signal on FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
FSV Mainz 051.0
–
0.8SC Paderborn 07
Season average total: 1.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
50%
50%
0%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawSC Paderborn 07 win
Market call
Double chance : FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Goals scored
1.90
Expected (xG)
2.55
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
No xG data for SC Paderborn 07
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
2.50Goals scored / game0.75
1.50Goals conceded / game1.25
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — FSV Mainz 05 4 games, SC Paderborn 07 4 games.

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
50%Games with a clean sheet25%
25%Games they failed to score75%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

FSV Mainz 05
0–0
SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05
2–0
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
1–2
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
5–0
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
2–2
FSV Mainz 05
Form check

Their recent form.

FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 1D · 1L
Borussia MönchengladbachvFSV Mainz 05
3–4
W
FSV Mainz 05vEintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
0–5
W
FSV Mainz 05vSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 1D · 2L
SC Paderborn 07v1899 Hoffenheim
3–1
W
Borussia DortmundvSC Paderborn 07
3–0
L
SC Paderborn 07vSC Freiburg
0–1
L
FSV Mainz 05vSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0