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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Gremio
Gremio
17th · 37 pts·DDLWW
vs
—
Fluminense
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts·WLLLW
The story

Gremio fight for survival as Fluminense chase Libertadores

A desperate Gremio side battles to pull clear of the relegation zone against a high-flying Fluminense looking to consolidate their top-four standing.

Match news & current form

Gremio enter this clash in 16th place, sitting just two points above the relegation zone with 19 games remaining. Momentum has stalled for the Porto Alegre side following consecutive Serie A defeats, most recently a 2-1 loss away to Mirassol and a 3-1 home reverse against Corinthians. Survival is the immediate priority, and they will rely heavily on their home form to navigate this precarious run.

Fluminense occupy 4th place with 32 points, firmly in the hunt for a continental qualification spot. While they have proven difficult to beat, winning only one of their last five matches, their recent form is defined by stalemates. After a 2-1 win over Sao Paulo, they have recorded back-to-back 1-1 draws against Cruzeiro and RB Bragantino, suggesting a lack of clinical edge to kill games off.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Gremio have secured a victory in 58% of their home fixtures this season despite their lowly league position.
  • Fluminense have suffered defeat in 50% of their last six away matches in Serie A.
  • Jefferson Savarino is the man in form for the visitors, having netted three goals in his last nine league appearances.
  • Gremio's recent defensive discipline has wavered, conceding over 4.5 corners in each of their last six matches.
Key players & missing men

Gremio are expected to hand starts to Martin Braithwaite and Carlos Vinicius to solve their scoring woes, but they must do so without the defensive cover of Marlon and L. Perez. Fluminense travel with a significant list of absences, as John Kennedy, Matheus Reis, Vitor Eudes, and J. Millan are all ruled out. The visitors will lean on the experience of Thiago Silva and the creative output of Luciano Acosta to bridge the gap.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Gremio1.6
–
1.3Fluminense
Season average total: 2.85 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Gremio winDrawFluminense win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Fluminense
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

GremioGremioFluminenseFluminense
1.12Goals scored / game1.58
1.33Goals conceded / game1.27
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Gremio 33 games, Fluminense 33 games.

GremioGremioFluminenseFluminense
24%Games with a clean sheet18%
30%Games they failed to score12%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Gremio
1–1
Fluminense
Fluminense
2–1
Gremio
Gremio
1–2
Fluminense
Fluminense
1–0
Gremio
Fluminense
2–2
Gremio
Form check

Their recent form.

Gremio
Gremio
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
GremiovAtletico Paranaense
2–0
W
CoritibavGremio
0–1
W
GremiovCruzeiro
2–4
L
GremiovInternacional
1–1
D
RemovGremio
1–1
D
Fluminense
Fluminense
Struggling for results
Last 5
2W · 0D · 3L
FluminensevInternacional
2–1
W
Chapecoense-scvFluminense
2–1
L
FluminensevSantos
1–2
L
FlamengovFluminense
1–0
L
FluminensevCoritiba
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
34
23
7
4
+42
76
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
33
20
10
3
+34
70
3
CruzeiroCruzeiro
33
17
6
10
+6
57
4
FluminenseFluminense
33
15
9
9
+10
54
5
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
34
15
9
10
+8
54
6
BahiaBahia
33
14
11
8
+6
53
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
33
14
8
11
+5
50
8
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
34
13
8
13
+5
47
9
SantosSantos
34
12
11
11
+1
47
10
Sao PauloSao Paulo
33
12
7
14
+0
43
11
CoritibaCoritiba
34
11
9
14
-11
42
12
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
33
11
8
14
-7
41
13
MirassolMirassol
34
10
10
14
-9
40
14
BotafogoBotafogo
33
10
9
14
-8
39
15
VitoriaVitoria
33
10
8
15
-13
38
16
InternacionalInternacional
34
9
11
14
-4
38
17
GremioGremio
34
9
10
15
-9
37
18
CorinthiansCorinthians
33
9
9
15
-6
36
19
RemoRemo
33
6
11
16
-15
29
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
33
4
9
20
-35
21