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Serie A (Brazil)
·
Gremio
Gremio
17th · 37 pts·DDLWW
vs
—
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
2nd · 70 pts·WWWWD
The story

Gremio host title-chasing Palmeiras in crucial Serie A clash

Gremio fight to pull clear of the bottom four while Palmeiras aim to overhaul a one-point deficit at the top of the table.

Match news & current form

Gremio enter this fixture in 16th place with 28 points, currently sitting seven points and five places away from the Copa Sudamericana qualification spots. Manager Castro is under pressure to restore belief after a run of four defeats in their last five matches, including a narrow 3-2 loss to Botafogo last time out. While they have struggled for consistency, they have managed to find the net in recent losses, suggesting they remain a threat at home.

Palmeiras are firmly in the title race, sitting in 2nd place on 56 points, just one point behind the leaders. They arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last nine matches across all competitions. Their last league outing was a 2-0 victory over Sao Paulo, following a string of resilient performances that have kept them within striking distance of the summit with 11 games remaining.

Head-to-head history

Historical meetings between these two sides favour the visitors, with Palmeiras winning 20 of their 45 official encounters compared to 11 for Gremio. However, Gremio won the most recent meeting at their own ground with a 3-2 victory in November 2025. The reverse fixture earlier this year ended in a 2-1 win for Palmeiras.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Gremio have won only one of their last five matches, a 3-1 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
  • Palmeiras are currently on a nine-match unbeaten streak across all competitions.
  • Matches at Gremio's ground have seen over 1.5 goals in seven of the last eight meetings.
  • The last five head-to-head meetings have seen a total of 14 goals, averaging 2.8 per game.
Key players & missing men

Gremio will be without F. Amuzu, Dodi, and Marlon for this clash, thinning their options as they look to escape the lower reaches of the table. Palmeiras are missing Jefte, Murilo, and Paulinho. Abel Ferreira's squad depth remains a key asset as they manage the final 11 games of the title charge.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Gremio1.1
–
1.4Palmeiras
Season average total: 2.54 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Gremio winDrawPalmeiras win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Palmeiras
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

GremioGremioPalmeirasPalmeiras
1.12Goals scored / game1.70
1.33Goals conceded / game0.67
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Gremio 33 games, Palmeiras 33 games.

GremioGremioPalmeirasPalmeiras
24%Games with a clean sheet48%
30%Games they failed to score15%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Gremio
0–0
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
2–1
Gremio
Gremio
3–2
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
1–0
Gremio
Palmeiras
1–0
Gremio
Form check

Their recent form.

Gremio
Gremio
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
GremiovAtletico Paranaense
2–0
W
CoritibavGremio
0–1
W
GremiovCruzeiro
2–4
L
GremiovInternacional
1–1
D
RemovGremio
1–1
D
Palmeiras
Palmeiras
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
SantosvPalmeiras
0–0
D
PalmeirasvRB Bragantino
2–0
W
Atletico ParanaensevPalmeiras
0–2
W
PalmeirasvCorinthians
4–1
W
PalmeirasvBahia
1–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Brazil) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FlamengoFlamengo
34
23
7
4
+42
76
2
PalmeirasPalmeiras
33
20
10
3
+34
70
3
CruzeiroCruzeiro
33
17
6
10
+6
57
4
FluminenseFluminense
33
15
9
9
+10
54
5
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
34
15
9
10
+8
54
6
BahiaBahia
33
14
11
8
+6
53
7
Atletico-MGAtletico-MG
33
14
8
11
+5
50
8
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
34
13
8
13
+5
47
9
SantosSantos
34
12
11
11
+1
47
10
Sao PauloSao Paulo
33
12
7
14
+0
43
11
CoritibaCoritiba
34
11
9
14
-11
42
12
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama
33
11
8
14
-7
41
13
MirassolMirassol
34
10
10
14
-9
40
14
BotafogoBotafogo
33
10
9
14
-8
39
15
VitoriaVitoria
33
10
8
15
-13
38
16
InternacionalInternacional
34
9
11
14
-4
38
17
GremioGremio
34
9
10
15
-9
37
18
CorinthiansCorinthians
33
9
9
15
-6
36
19
RemoRemo
33
6
11
16
-15
29
20
Chapecoense-scChapecoense-sc
33
4
9
20
-35
21