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Bundesliga (Germany)
·
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
16th · 3 pts·LLLW
vs
—
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
6th · 7 pts·DWLW
The story

HSV and Mainz search for first goals and points

Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 meet at the Volksparkstadion with both sides desperate to register their first goal and first victory of the new Bundesliga campaign.

Match news & current form

Hamburger SV enter matchday two sitting 15th and inside the early relegation zone after a 2-0 opening-day defeat to Borussia Dortmund. Manager Merlin Polzin is under pressure to rediscover the form that saw HSV survive comfortably last season, as the side has now managed just one win in their last six home outings in the top flight.

FSV Mainz 05 are currently 11th after an ineffectual 0-0 draw against SC Paderborn 07. While Urs Fischer’s men have European ambitions this term, they must improve on their opening performance to keep pace with the top six. Mainz showed confidence in their existing squad late in the transfer window, allowing Andreas Hanche-Olsen and Marco Richter to depart without signing immediate replacements.

Head-to-head history

The most recent encounter in February 2026 was a fiery 1-1 draw, though HSV will look back fondly on their last home meeting with Mainz. In that fixture, Hamburg recorded their biggest victory since returning to the Bundesliga, a 4-0 demolition that included two goals from Rayan Philippe, who has since departed the club.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Hamburger SV have failed to keep a clean sheet in 15 consecutive Bundesliga matches.
  • HSV are on a dismal run of four defeats and one draw in their last five matches across all competitions.
  • Both teams are yet to score a single goal in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season.
  • Mainz have lost only one of their last five matches, including pre-season and their opening league draw.
Key players & missing men

Mainz will be boosted by the availability of Stefan Posch, who is now ready for the starting lineup, though they remain without midfielders Eric Martel and Paul Nebel due to knee and groin injuries. Kaishu Sano is expected to continue in the engine room. For HSV, the focus remains on finding a replacement for the goals of Rayan Philippe, who joined Paderborn on loan after starring in this fixture last year.

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We have published a signal on Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

Subscribers only

Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Hamburger SV1.3
–
3.8FSV Mainz 05
Season average total: 5.00 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Hamburger SV winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or FSV Mainz 05
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Hamburger SV
1602
FSV Mainz 05
1672

FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side — 70 rating points clear of Hamburger SV.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Hamburger SVHamburger SV
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.10
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
Goals scored
1.90
Expected (xG)
2.55
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Hamburger SVHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
0.50Goals scored / game2.50
3.25Goals conceded / game1.50
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Hamburger SV 4 games, FSV Mainz 05 4 games.

Hamburger SVHamburger SVFSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
0%Games with a clean sheet50%
75%Games they failed to score25%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Hamburger SV
0–5
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
1–1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
4–0
FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
0–0
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
3–2
Hamburger SV
Form check

Their recent form.

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 0D · 3L
Hamburger SVv1. FC Köln
2–1
W
RB LeipzigvHamburger SV
5–0
L
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
0–5
L
Borussia DortmundvHamburger SV
2–0
L
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 1L
Borussia MönchengladbachvFSV Mainz 05
3–4
W
FSV Mainz 05vEintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
Hamburger SVvFSV Mainz 05
0–5
W
FSV Mainz 05vSC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Bundesliga (Germany) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
4
4
0
0
+7
12
2
Bayern MünchenBayern München
4
3
1
0
+12
10
3
SC FreiburgSC Freiburg
4
3
1
0
+9
10
4
FC AugsburgFC Augsburg
4
2
1
1
+5
7
5
Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
+5
7
6
FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 05
4
2
1
1
+4
7
7
SV ElversbergSV Elversberg
4
2
1
1
+1
7
8
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
4
2
1
1
+0
7
9
RB LeipzigRB Leipzig
4
2
0
2
+4
6
10
Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
4
1
2
1
-1
5
11
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
4
1
2
1
-1
5
12
SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn 07
4
1
1
2
-2
4
13
1. FC Köln1. FC Köln
4
1
1
2
-3
4
14
1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim
4
1
0
3
-3
3
15
VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
4
1
0
3
-3
3
16
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
4
1
0
3
-11
3
17
Union BerlinUnion Berlin
4
0
1
3
-13
1
18
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach
4
0
0
4
-10
0