Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
Lazio
Lazio
3rd · 13 pts·WWWDW
vs
—
AC Milan
AC Milan
5th · 11 pts·WWDDW
The story

Gattuso meets former club as Lazio defend perfect start

Lazio aim to extend their flawless start to the Serie A campaign against an unbeaten AC Milan side currently occupying the final Europa League qualification spot.

Match news & current form

Lazio sit 3rd with nine points, still firmly in the title race after winning their opening three matches for the first time since 2012. New manager Gennaro Gattuso has quickly silenced critics following an early cup exit, leading his side to a 2-1 comeback victory over Udinese last Monday. Goals from Davide Frattesi and debutant Albert Gudmundsson ensured the Biancocelesti remain one of the league's form teams.

AC Milan travel to Rome in 5th place with seven points, holding a Europa League position after three games. Under new head coach Ruben Amorim, the Rossoneri were minutes away from a perfect start themselves before conceding a stoppage-time equaliser in a 1-1 draw with Juventus last weekend. Despite that setback, Milan remain unbeaten and have already secured away points at Torino this term.

Head-to-head history

This fixture was dominated by the home side last season, with Lazio winning both the league and cup encounters at the Stadio Olimpico by a -0 scoreline. While Milan hold the superior historical record with 74 Serie A wins to Lazio's 34, the recent balance at this venue is perfectly even, with both clubs recording 27 wins apiece across 94 meetings in Rome.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Lazio have won their first three Serie A matches for only the third time in their entire history.
  • Gennaro Gattuso faces his former club where he made 335 league appearances and managed 62 matches.
  • AC Milan have suffered 87 top-flight defeats against Juventus; Lazio are the next most frequent victors over the Rossoneri.
  • Lazio have kept clean sheets in two of their last three league matches, both resulting in 1-0 wins.
Key players & missing men

Davide Frattesi is the man in form for the hosts, having scored in three consecutive matches. Lazio will be without several squad members including Danilo Cataldi, Nicolo Rovella, and Luca Pellegrini. AC Milan are monitoring former Lazio defender Mario Gila, who is struggling with a knee injury, while Mattia Gabbia is expected to be their only confirmed absentee. New arrival Omari Hutchinson is in contention for his debut in support of striker Goncalo Ramos.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Lazio1.4
–
1.3AC Milan
Season average total: 2.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Lazio winDrawAC Milan win
Market call
Double chance : Lazio or Draw
Goals forecast
Under 3.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lazio
1703
AC Milan
1750

AC Milan are the stronger side — 47 rating points clear of Lazio.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

LazioLazio
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.41
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
AC MilanAC Milan
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.62
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LazioLazioAC MilanAC Milan
1.60Goals scored / game2.00
0.60Goals conceded / game0.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lazio 5 games, AC Milan 5 games.

LazioLazioAC MilanAC Milan
60%Games with a clean sheet40%
0%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lazio
2–2
AC Milan
Lazio
1–0
AC Milan
Lazio
1–0
AC Milan
AC Milan
1–0
Lazio
AC Milan
1–2
Lazio
Form check

Their recent form.

Lazio
Lazio
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
VeneziavLazio
0–2
W
LaziovAC Milan
2–2
D
UdinesevLazio
1–2
W
LaziovGenoa
1–0
W
BolognavLazio
0–1
W
AC Milan
AC Milan
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
AC MilanvLecce
3–0
W
LaziovAC Milan
2–2
D
JuventusvAC Milan
1–1
D
AC MilanvVenezia
2–0
W
TorinovAC Milan
1–2
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0