Winlytics.AI
Full time
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Le Havre
Le Havre
18th · 2 pts·LDLDL
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 5 pts·DDWLL
The story

Le Havre seek survival spark against goal-shy Brest

Le Havre enter this clash fighting to escape the relegation zone, while Stade Brestois 29 look to bridge the gap to the European places.

Match news & current form

Didier Digard’s Le Havre side currently sit 15th, occupying a relegation spot with 32 games left to secure their top-flight status. They come into this fixture following a hard-fought 1-1 draw away at Lyon, a result that offered some stability after a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Monaco. Despite their league position, the Normandy outfit have recently reinforced their reputation for defensive resilience, having pushed league leaders PSG to the limit in a close-fought contest earlier this term.

Stade Brestois 29 occupy 11th place, sitting just two points adrift of the European qualification spots. Eric Roy’s side have become draw specialists recently, recording back-to-back 2-2 stalemates against Toulouse and Le Mans. While they have successfully moved away from the immediate danger zone, a lack of clinical finishing has hindered their progress, with the side failing to score more than a single goal in five consecutive Ligue 1 matches prior to their recent high-scoring draws.

Head-to-head history

Recent history at the Stade Océane favours the hosts, who secured a 1-0 victory in the last meeting between these two sides in October. However, Brest have historically been a difficult nut for Le Havre to crack, previously maintaining a nine-match unbeaten streak against them when playing at home, including eight clean sheets in that run.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Le Havre have significantly improved their home form, highlighted by their 1-0 win over Brest in their last encounter.
  • Stade Brestois 29 have failed to score more than one goal in five of their last six Ligue 1 fixtures.
  • Le Havre had managed just one away win recently compared to seven last season, increasing the pressure to perform at the Stade Océane.
  • Brest have conceded an average of two goals per game across their recent away trips.
Key players & missing men

Le Havre will be without the services of A. Toure, S. Zagadou, P. Argney, and F. Mambimbi, thinning their defensive and midfield options. For the visitors, Eric Roy must contend with the absence of B. Chardonnet and J. Bourgault. Abdullah Toure remains a key figure for the hosts, having recently proven his worth with a decisive match-winning goal against Auxerre.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Le Havre1.0
1.3Stade Brestois 29
Season average total: 2.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Le Havre winDrawStade Brestois 29 win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Stade Brestois 29
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Le Havre
1580
Stade Brestois 29
1621

Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side — 41 rating points clear of Le Havre.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Le HavreLe Havre
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.36
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.70
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Le HavreLe HavreStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
0.80Goals scored / game1.40
1.40Goals conceded / game1.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Le Havre 5 games, Stade Brestois 29 5 games.

Le HavreLe HavreStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
20%Games with a clean sheet0%
40%Games they failed to score20%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

No prior meetings on record.

Form check

Their recent form.

Le Havre
Le Havre
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
ToulousevLe Havre
3–2
L
Le HavrevAngers
0–0
D
Le HavrevStade Brestois 29
1–2
L
LyonvLe Havre
1–1
D
Le HavrevMonaco
0–1
L
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
AuxerrevStade Brestois 29
2–1
L
Stade Brestois 29vParis Saint Germain
0–1
L
Le HavrevStade Brestois 29
1–2
W
Stade Brestois 29vToulouse
2–2
D
Le MansvStade Brestois 29
2–2
D
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2