Winlytics.AI
Full time
Serie A (Italy)
·
Lecce
Lecce
12th · 6 pts·WLLWL
vs
—
AS Roma
AS Roma
1st · 13 pts·WWWWD
The story

Lecce chase history as Roma eye seventh straight win

Lecce aim to win their first two Serie A fixtures for the first time in their history, but face a Roma side currently occupying a Champions League spot and riding a six-match winning streak.

Match news & current form

Lecce occupy 7th place and sit level with the European positions after an impressive 2-0 opening day victory away at Venezia. Manager Eusebio Di Francesco has successfully stabilised the Salentini after a poor Coppa Italia exit to Palermo, but he faces a personal hoodoo this Monday; he has lost 10 consecutive matches against his former club, Roma.

AS Roma sit 4th and are looking to maintain their perfect start following a dominant 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have now posted six consecutive league wins dating back to last season and arrived at the Via del Mare as heavy favourites to keep pace at the top of the table.

Head-to-head history

Roma have dominated this fixture recently, winning five of the last six meetings and keeping clean sheets in each of the last three. Lecce’s last league victory against the Giallorossi came over a decade ago in April 2012.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Roma have won six consecutive Serie A matches, five of which included a clean sheet.
  • Lecce have won their opening home game just once in their last six top-flight campaigns.
  • The total goals have gone over 2.5 in each of Roma's last six league matches.
  • Eusebio Di Francesco has managed just three points from 16 career meetings with Roma.
  • Lecce are seeking to win their first two games of a Serie A season for the first time ever.
Key players & missing men

Donyell Malen is the man in form for the visitors, having netted a hat-trick on his debut following a permanent summer move from Aston Villa. Roma will be without Lorenzo Pellegrini, Devyne Rensch, and Mads Bech Sorensen, while Robinio Vaz is expected to miss out amid transfer links to Hull City. Lecce are missing Lameck Banda and Antonino Gallo.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Lecce0.8
–
3.0AS Roma
Season average total: 3.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Lecce winDrawAS Roma win
Market call
Winner : AS Roma
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lecce
1568
AS Roma
1793

AS Roma are the stronger side — 225 rating points clear of Lecce.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

LecceLecce
Goals scored
1.10
Expected (xG)
1.29
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
AS RomaAS Roma
Goals scored
2.70
Expected (xG)
2.85
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LecceLecceAS RomaAS Roma
1.00Goals scored / game2.80
2.00Goals conceded / game0.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lecce 5 games, AS Roma 5 games.

LecceLecceAS RomaAS Roma
20%Games with a clean sheet60%
60%Games they failed to score0%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lecce
0–4
AS Roma
AS Roma
1–0
Lecce
Lecce
0–2
AS Roma
Lecce
0–1
AS Roma
AS Roma
4–1
Lecce
Form check

Their recent form.

Lecce
Lecce
Struggling for results
Last 5
2W · 0D · 3L
AC MilanvLecce
3–0
L
LeccevMonza
3–2
W
CagliarivLecce
1–0
L
LeccevAS Roma
0–4
L
VeneziavLecce
0–2
W
AS Roma
AS Roma
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
AS RomavInter
2–2
D
TorinovAS Roma
0–2
W
AS RomavAtalanta
2–1
W
LeccevAS Roma
0–4
W
AS RomavFiorentina
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
AS RomaAS Roma
5
4
1
0
+11
13
2
InterInter
5
4
1
0
+7
13
3
LazioLazio
5
4
1
0
+5
13
4
CagliariCagliari
5
4
0
1
+3
12
5
AC MilanAC Milan
5
3
2
0
+6
11
6
FrosinoneFrosinone
5
3
1
1
+5
10
7
JuventusJuventus
5
3
1
1
+4
10
8
ComoComo
5
3
1
1
+3
10
9
NapoliNapoli
5
2
1
2
+1
7
10
SassuoloSassuolo
5
2
1
2
+0
7
11
AtalantaAtalanta
5
2
0
3
-2
6
12
LecceLecce
5
2
0
3
-5
6
13
UdineseUdinese
5
1
1
3
-3
4
14
TorinoTorino
5
1
1
3
-3
4
15
ParmaParma
5
1
1
3
-3
4
16
MonzaMonza
5
1
1
3
-4
4
17
FiorentinaFiorentina
5
1
1
3
-6
4
18
BolognaBologna
5
0
2
3
-3
2
19
GenoaGenoa
5
0
1
4
-7
1
20
VeneziaVenezia
5
0
0
5
-9
0