Winlytics.AI
Full time
Premier League (England)
·
Leeds
Leeds
5th · 9 pts·WDDWD
vs
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
15th · 4 pts·LLWLD
The story

In-form Leeds United host struggling Crystal Palace at Elland Road

Leeds United look to cement their strong start against a Crystal Palace side struggling with defensive vulnerabilities and a crowded fixture list.

Match news & current form

Leeds United sit 4th in the table with 8 points after four games. Daniel Farke’s side remain unbeaten in their last three league outings, most recently dismantling Newcastle 4-1 at home. The Whites have found the net in all of their last five matches at Elland Road, scoring 12 goals in that period.

Crystal Palace occupy 17th place with 3 points from four matches. New manager Pierre Sage faces his third game in eight days following a midweek European fixture. While Palace secured a 3-2 win over Fulham recently, they suffered a 2-3 home defeat to Ipswich last time out and have conceded a league-high 11 goals so far.

Head-to-head history

The recent history between these sides is mixed. Leeds secured a dominant 4-1 victory in their last meeting at Elland Road in December 2025, though Crystal Palace previously enjoyed a heavy 5-1 win at the same venue in 2023. Their most recent encounter ended in a 0-0 draw in March 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Crystal Palace have conceded two or more goals in 10 consecutive Premier League matches.
  • Leeds United have lost only once in their last 13 league fixtures.
  • The Eagles have not kept a Premier League clean sheet since April 20.
  • Palace have allowed their opponents 164 touches in their own penalty area this season, the highest in the division.
Key players & missing men

Leeds are without M. Joseph and J. Rodon. Crystal Palace face a significant injury list; Axel Disasi is suspended, while Jean-Philippe Mateta, Dean Henderson, Ismaila Sarr, and Chadi Riad are all sidelined. Edward Nketiah remains a doubt, placing more pressure on Jørgen Strand Larsen to lead the line.

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We have published a signal on Leeds vs Crystal Palace — the market, the selection, the price we need and the model’s confidence. Every signal is graded in public, win or lose.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Leeds vs Crystal Palace and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Leeds1.5
0.8Crystal Palace
Season average total: 2.33 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Leeds winDrawCrystal Palace win
Market call
Double chance : Leeds or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Leeds
1797
Crystal Palace
1804

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

LeedsLeeds
Goals scored
1.40
Expected (xG)
1.51
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Goals scored
1.10
Expected (xG)
1.48
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LeedsLeedsCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace
1.40Goals scored / game1.20
0.60Goals conceded / game2.20
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Leeds 5 games, Crystal Palace 5 games.

LeedsLeedsCrystal PalaceCrystal Palace
40%Games with a clean sheet20%
20%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Leeds
0–0
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
0–0
Leeds
Leeds
4–1
Crystal Palace
Leeds
1–5
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
2–1
Leeds
Form check

Their recent form.

Leeds
Leeds
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 3D · 0L
LeedsvCrystal Palace
0–0
D
LeedsvNewcastle
4–1
W
BrightonvLeeds
1–1
D
LeedsvBrentford
1–1
D
Nottingham ForestvLeeds
0–1
W
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
LeedsvCrystal Palace
0–0
D
Crystal PalacevIpswich
2–3
L
FulhamvCrystal Palace
2–3
W
Crystal PalacevManchester City
1–4
L
EvertonvCrystal Palace
2–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (England) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Manchester CityManchester City
5
5
0
0
+8
15
2
ArsenalArsenal
5
4
0
1
+4
12
3
BrightonBrighton
5
3
1
1
+11
10
4
BrentfordBrentford
5
2
3
0
+6
9
5
LeedsLeeds
5
2
3
0
+4
9
6
LiverpoolLiverpool
5
2
3
0
+3
9
7
EvertonEverton
5
2
3
0
+3
9
8
Hull CityHull City
5
2
2
1
+2
8
9
NewcastleNewcastle
5
2
2
1
+0
8
10
ChelseaChelsea
5
2
1
2
-2
7
11
IpswichIpswich
5
2
0
3
-4
6
12
Manchester UnitedManchester United
5
1
2
2
+0
5
13
Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest
5
1
2
2
-1
5
14
SunderlandSunderland
5
1
1
3
-4
4
15
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
5
1
1
3
-5
4
16
Aston VillaAston Villa
5
1
1
3
-5
4
17
BournemouthBournemouth
5
0
3
2
-2
3
18
CoventryCoventry
5
1
0
4
-9
3
19
FulhamFulham
5
0
2
3
-3
2
20
TottenhamTottenham
5
0
2
3
-6
2