Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 17h
Ekstraklasa (Poland)
·
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
3rd · 23 pts·WDWWD
vs
—
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
2nd · 25 pts·WLWWW
The story

Legia Warszawa Host Lech Poznan in Early Title Battle

Second hosts third in Poland's biggest derby, with both clubs looking to build on excellent starts to the campaign.

Match news & current form

Marek Papszun's Legia Warszawa sit third on 23 points after 11 games, just two points behind their fierce rivals with 23 fixtures still to play. The Warsaw side enter this clash in fine domestic touch having avoided defeat across their last five games (W3 D2), following up a 3-1 victory away at Jagiellonia with a 2-0 home triumph against Wisla Krakow.

Lech Poznan have made an equally impressive start, sitting second on 25 points after 10 games. They have won four of their last five matches, responding to a 2-1 defeat at Gornik Zabrze by hammering Radomiak Radom 5-1 at home and sweeping aside Slask Wroclaw 4-1 on the road last time out.

Head-to-head history

Recent meetings have largely favoured the visitors, with Lech Poznan claiming heavy victories including a 5-2 win in November 2024 and a 4-0 drubbing in April 2026. However, Legia have tightened up since then, having previously managed a 2-1 away win in July 2025 and a goalless home draw in October 2025 across their last five encounters.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Legia Warszawa are on a 14-match unbeaten streak in the league stretching back to their 4-0 loss against Lech Poznan in April 2026.
  • Legia have won three of their last four matches in all competitions.
  • Lech Poznan have won four of their last five league games but lost their second-to-last away trip 2-1 at Gornik Zabrze.
  • Across the last five head-to-head fixtures, Lech Poznan lead with three wins to Legia's one and one draw.
Key players & missing men

Legia boast an experienced core featuring Bartosz Kapustka, Pawel Wszolek, Kamil Piatkowski, and Rafal Augustyniak, supplemented by 21-year-old American prospect Robert Deziel Jr. Neither side has any reported injury or suspension absences ahead of this clash.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Legia Warszawa1.9
–
1.6Lech Poznan
Season average total: 3.50 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Legia Warszawa winDrawLech Poznan win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Lech Poznan
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Legia Warszawa
1441
Lech Poznan
1521

Lech Poznan are the stronger side — 80 rating points clear of Legia Warszawa.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

Legia WarszawaLegia WarszawaLech PoznanLech Poznan
2.00Goals scored / game2.70
0.82Goals conceded / game0.90
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Legia Warszawa 11 games, Lech Poznan 10 games.

Legia WarszawaLegia WarszawaLech PoznanLech Poznan
27%Games with a clean sheet30%
0%Games they failed to score10%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lech Poznan
4–0
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
0–0
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
1–2
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
0–1
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
5–2
Legia Warszawa
Form check

Their recent form.

Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
Cracovia KrakowvLegia Warszawa
1–1
D
Legia WarszawavWisla Krakow
2–0
W
JagielloniavLegia Warszawa
1–3
W
Legia WarszawavWidzew Łódź
1–1
D
Motor LublinvLegia Warszawa
2–3
W
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 0D · 1L
Lech PoznanvKorona Kielce
6–1
W
Slask WroclawvLech Poznan
1–4
W
Lech PoznanvRadomiak Radom
5–1
W
Gornik ZabrzevLech Poznan
2–1
L
Lech PoznanvRaków Częstochowa
1–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ekstraklasa (Poland) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Gornik ZabrzeGornik Zabrze
11
8
2
1
+10
26
2
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
10
8
1
1
+18
25
3
Legia WarszawaLegia Warszawa
11
6
5
0
+13
23
4
Pogon SzczecinPogon Szczecin
10
6
3
1
+9
21
5
GKS KatowiceGKS Katowice
11
6
0
5
+6
18
6
Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow
11
5
3
3
+3
18
7
Zaglebie LubinZaglebie Lubin
11
5
3
3
+0
18
8
Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice
11
5
2
4
+2
17
9
Korona KielceKorona Kielce
11
4
3
4
-5
15
10
Wisla PlockWisla Plock
10
4
2
4
-5
14
11
Cracovia KrakowCracovia Krakow
11
3
3
5
-3
12
12
Motor LublinMotor Lublin
11
3
3
5
-4
12
13
JagielloniaJagiellonia
10
4
0
6
-4
12
14
Widzew ŁódźWidzew Łódź
11
1
7
3
-1
10
15
Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków
11
2
2
7
-5
8
16
Radomiak RadomRadomiak Radom
11
2
2
7
-15
8
17
Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw
11
1
3
7
-8
6
18
Raków CzęstochowaRaków Częstochowa
11
2
0
9
-11
6