Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 20h
Liga MX (Mexico)
·
Leon
Leon
4th · 21 pts·DWDLW
vs
—
Toluca
Toluca
3rd · 21 pts·WLDLD
The story

Leon host Toluca with playoff places at stake

With four games remaining in the regular phase, Leon look to cement their top-eight playoff place against a Toluca side still hunting the league leaders in the title race.

Match news & current form

Leon sit fourth on 21 points, holding a place in the playoff spots with a four-point cushion over ninth place and four games remaining. They drew 1-1 away at Puebla last time out and have lost just once in their last five matches, having also claimed successive home victories over Atletico San Luis (2-0) and FC Juarez (2-1).

Toluca sit third on 21 points with five games left, trailing the league leaders by just three points in a tight title pursuit. However, their momentum has stalled following back-to-back 3-2 defeats against Tigres UANL away and Santos Laguna at home, leaving them eager to arrest a slide that yielded just two wins from their last five league fixtures.

Head-to-head history

Toluca hold the upper hand in recent encounters, winning the last three meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory in September 2026 and a 4-1 win in April 2026. Leon's last home fixture against Toluca ended in a 4-2 defeat in October 2025, following a 3-3 draw at Estadio Leon earlier that year.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Toluca have conceded three goals in two of their last three league matches, losing 3-2 to both Tigres UANL and Santos Laguna.
  • Leon are unbeaten in their last two home games, securing 2-0 and 2-1 wins.
  • Toluca have won three consecutive head-to-head encounters against Leon.
Key players & missing men

Toluca rely heavily on Federico Sebastian Vinas Barboza, who has scored five goals this campaign, alongside Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas with four goals and two assists. Playmaker Helio Junio Nunes de Castro provides the primary creative spark with five assists and 25 chances created. Neither side has any reported absences heading into the fixture.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Leon1.6
–
1.6Toluca
Season average total: 3.17 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Leon winDrawToluca win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Toluca
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LeonLeonTolucaToluca
1.54Goals scored / game2.17
1.31Goals conceded / game1.33
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Leon 13 games, Toluca 12 games.

LeonLeonTolucaToluca
31%Games with a clean sheet33%
8%Games they failed to score8%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Toluca
2–0
Leon
Toluca
4–1
Leon
Leon
2–4
Toluca
Leon
3–3
Toluca
Toluca
2–2
Leon
Form check

Their recent form.

Leon
Leon
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Tigres UANLvLeon
0–2
W
LeonvClub America
3–5
L
PueblavLeon
1–1
D
LeonvFC Juarez
2–1
W
Club QueretarovLeon
1–1
D
Toluca
Toluca
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
TolucavAtletico San Luis
1–1
D
Tigres UANLvToluca
3–2
L
Cruz AzulvToluca
3–3
D
TolucavSantos Laguna
2–3
L
PueblavToluca
0–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Liga MX (Mexico) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Club AmericaClub America
11
7
3
1
+13
24
2
Guadalajara ChivasGuadalajara Chivas
13
6
5
2
+8
23
3
TolucaToluca
12
6
3
3
+10
21
4
LeonLeon
13
6
3
4
+3
21
5
AtlasAtlas
12
6
3
3
+1
21
6
Cruz AzulCruz Azul
12
6
2
4
+6
20
7
Club QueretaroClub Queretaro
12
6
2
4
+1
20
8
MonterreyMonterrey
11
5
2
4
+3
17
9
Santos LagunaSantos Laguna
12
5
1
6
+1
16
10
Club TijuanaClub Tijuana
11
4
4
3
+1
16
11
U.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
12
4
4
4
-1
16
12
PueblaPuebla
12
4
4
4
-1
16
13
Atletico San LuisAtletico San Luis
13
4
4
5
-4
16
14
Tigres UANLTigres UANL
13
3
5
5
-4
14
15
Atlante FCAtlante FC
13
3
5
5
-5
14
16
CF PachucaCF Pachuca
12
3
4
5
+3
13
17
NecaxaNecaxa
13
2
3
8
-11
9
18
FC JuarezFC Juarez
13
1
1
11
-24
4