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Full time
Premier League (Russia)
·
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
14th · 7 pts·LLWLD
vs
—
Dynamo
Dynamo
2nd · 19 pts·WWWWW
The story

Lokomotiv fight for survival in high-stakes Moscow derby

A critical Moscow derby sees 14th-placed Lokomotiv fighting to escape the relegation zone against a Dynamo side sitting just outside the European places.

Match news & current form

Lokomotiv Moscow enter this fixture in the relegation zone, sitting 14th with just three points. They are winless in their last five matches, most recently falling 3-2 in a narrow defeat away to CSKA Moscow. With 25 games remaining to save their season, the pressure is mounting to convert recent draws against the likes of Orenburg and Akhmat into a first victory.

Dynamo Moscow occupy 7th place and are currently level on points with the European qualification spots. Their momentum is mixed; while they secured a convincing 3-1 win over Rodina Moskva last time out, they recently suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat to Zenit. They will view this derby as a vital opportunity to break into the top five.

Head-to-head history

Recent history in this Moscow derby has slightly favoured the visitors, with Dynamo winning 50% of the last six league meetings. However, Lokomotiv have established a reputation for being stubborn opponents in this fixture, frequently forcing stalemates when playing as the home side.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Lokomotiv have seen under 2.5 goals in 67% of their last six matches, suggesting a low-scoring, cagey affair.
  • Dynamo Moscow have struggled for consistency away from home, evidenced by their recent 1-2 loss at Baltika.
  • Lokomotiv have recorded three draws in their last five matches, highlighting their resilience despite a lack of wins.
  • The home side has failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league outings.
Key players & missing men

Both squads enter the derby with remarkably clean bills of health, as no players are currently reported as missing or doubtful. This allows both managers to field their strongest possible XIs for what is traditionally one of the most physical encounters in the capital.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Lokomotiv0.9
–
1.0Dynamo
Season average total: 1.88 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
35%
35%
30%
Lokomotiv winDrawDynamo win
Market call
Double chance : Lokomotiv or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lokomotiv
1555
Dynamo
1539

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LokomotivLokomotivDynamoDynamo
0.89Goals scored / game1.56
1.22Goals conceded / game0.89
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lokomotiv 9 games, Dynamo 9 games.

LokomotivLokomotivDynamoDynamo
22%Games with a clean sheet44%
22%Games they failed to score22%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lokomotiv
0–1
Dynamo
Lokomotiv
1–1
Dynamo
Dynamo
3–5
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
2–1
Dynamo
Lokomotiv
0–2
Dynamo
Form check

Their recent form.

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
LokomotivvKrylia Sovetov
1–1
D
ZenitvLokomotiv
2–1
L
BaltikavLokomotiv
0–1
W
LokomotivvDynamo
0–1
L
CSKA MoscowvLokomotiv
3–2
L
Dynamo
Dynamo
On a strong winning run
Last 5
5W · 0D · 0L
FC RostovvDynamo
0–3
W
DynamovFC Orenburg
1–0
W
DynamovSpartak Moscow
2–1
W
LokomotivvDynamo
0–1
W
DynamovRodina Moskva
3–1
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Premier League (Russia) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
FC KrasnodarFC Krasnodar
9
6
3
0
+7
21
2
DynamoDynamo
9
6
1
2
+6
19
3
CSKA MoscowCSKA Moscow
9
5
4
0
+6
19
4
Spartak MoscowSpartak Moscow
9
6
1
2
+9
19
5
ZenitZenit
9
6
0
3
+10
18
6
RubinRubin
9
2
6
1
+1
12
7
Dinamo MakhachkalaDinamo Makhachkala
9
4
0
5
-1
12
8
BaltikaBaltika
9
3
2
4
+2
11
9
Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov
9
2
5
2
-1
11
10
AkhmatAkhmat
9
2
4
3
+0
10
11
FC OrenburgFC Orenburg
9
1
6
2
-3
9
12
FC RostovFC Rostov
9
2
2
5
-7
8
13
AkronAkron
9
1
5
3
-7
8
14
LokomotivLokomotiv
9
1
4
4
-3
7
15
Rodina MoskvaRodina Moskva
9
1
2
6
-12
5
16
FakelFakel
9
0
3
6
-7
3