Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 12h
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Lorient
Lorient
10th · 12 pts·DLWWD
vs
—
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
13th · 9 pts·LLWDL
The story

Lorient host Brest in Breton derby at Le Moustoir

Regional pride is on the line as ninth-placed Lorient look to extend their solid start against thirteenth-placed Stade Brestois.

Match news & current form

Lorient sit ninth in Ligue 1 on 12 points after eight games, having made a steady start to the campaign. They played out a 0-0 draw at Angers last time out, stretching their unbeaten run to three matches following back-to-back 1-0 home victories over Monaco and Paris FC.

Stade Brestois 29 find themselves in 13th place on nine points after eight games, having struggled for consistency so far. Les Pirates fell 2-1 at home to Nice in their last outing, meaning they have won only once in their last five league fixtures despite a recent 5-1 home win over Angers.

Head-to-head history

Brest have enjoyed the upper hand in recent Breton derbies, going unbeaten across their last five official encounters with Lorient. The most recent league clash in February 2026 ended in a 2-0 victory for Stade Brestois, while their last visit to Stade du Moustoir in October 2025 finished in a dramatic 3-3 draw.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Stade Brestois have won only one of their last nine away matches in Ligue 1, dating back into last season.
  • Lorient have kept three consecutive clean sheets in Ligue 1, winning two and drawing one.
  • Brest are unbeaten in their last five matches against Lorient in all competitions.
  • Brest have taken points from each of their last two league visits to Stade du Moustoir.
Key players & missing men

Lorient goalkeeper Yvon Mvogo made five saves against Angers to register his fourth clean sheet of the campaign, tying him for the most in Ligue 1 this season. Stade Brestois arrive with serious defensive problems, as centre-backs Brendan Chardonnet (calf) and Raphael Le Guen (broken fibula) are ruled out, alongside Giovani Versini (lower leg), while goalkeeper Romain Cagnon remains doubtful with a knock.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Lorient1.4
–
1.3Stade Brestois 29
Season average total: 2.63 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Lorient winDrawStade Brestois 29 win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Stade Brestois 29
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lorient
1639
Stade Brestois 29
1621

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

LorientLorient
Goals scored
1.10
Expected (xG)
1.21
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
Goals scored
1.60
Expected (xG)
2.28
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LorientLorientStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
0.88Goals scored / game1.75
0.75Goals conceded / game1.50
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lorient 8 games, Stade Brestois 29 8 games.

LorientLorientStade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
63%Games with a clean sheet0%
25%Games they failed to score13%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Stade Brestois 29
2–0
Lorient
Lorient
3–3
Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
1–1
Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
0–1
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
4–0
Lorient
Form check

Their recent form.

Lorient
Lorient
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
AngersvLorient
0–0
D
LorientvMonaco
1–0
W
LorientvParis FC
1–0
W
Le MansvLorient
2–1
L
LorientvToulouse
2–2
D
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Stade Brestois 29vNice
1–2
L
LillevStade Brestois 29
1–1
D
Stade Brestois 29vAngers
5–1
W
AuxerrevStade Brestois 29
2–1
L
Stade Brestois 29vParis Saint Germain
0–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
9
6
2
1
+11
20
2
LilleLille
9
5
3
1
+6
18
3
RennesRennes
9
5
1
3
+1
16
4
MonacoMonaco
8
4
3
1
+4
15
5
LyonLyon
8
4
2
2
+6
14
6
Paris FCParis FC
8
4
2
2
+4
14
7
NiceNice
9
4
2
3
+1
14
8
LensLens
9
4
1
4
+3
13
9
MarseilleMarseille
8
4
0
4
+5
12
10
LorientLorient
8
3
3
2
+1
12
11
ToulouseToulouse
8
2
4
2
+1
10
12
AuxerreAuxerre
8
3
1
4
-6
10
13
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
8
2
3
3
+2
9
14
AngersAngers
8
2
2
4
-6
8
15
Le MansLe Mans
8
1
4
3
-5
7
16
StrasbourgStrasbourg
8
2
1
5
-6
7
17
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
8
1
2
5
-11
5
18
Le HavreLe Havre
9
0
2
7
-11
2