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Ligue 1 (France)
·
Lorient
Lorient
12th · 5 pts·DLWDL
vs
Toulouse
Toulouse
13th · 5 pts·LDLDW
The story

Lorient seek back-to-back wins as Toulouse target first victory

Lorient aim to break a decade-long hoodoo against a Toulouse side currently languishing in the early relegation zone.

Match news & current form

Lorient sit 8th on 4 points, just two points off the continental qualification places after three matches. They enter this fixture with momentum after snapping a rough patch with a narrow 1-0 win over Lens last week, though they previously suffered a 1-2 home defeat to Estac Troyes.

Toulouse find themselves 17th and inside the relegation zone with only 1 point from a possible nine. New manager Jens Berthel Askou is still searching for his first win at the club following a 0-1 loss to Lille and a 0-2 defeat against Lyon in their opening three fixtures.

Head-to-head history

History heavily favours the visitors; Toulouse are unbeaten in their last nine Ligue 1 meetings with Lorient. The hosts have not tasted top-flight success in this fixture since December 2015. The most recent encounter in March 2026 ended in a 1-0 victory for Toulouse.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Lorient have not beaten Toulouse in Ligue 1 for nearly 11 years.
  • Toulouse are one of only six teams in the division yet to record a win this season.
  • Only Nice have scored fewer goals than Lorient (2) across the opening three matchweeks.
  • Toulouse have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions.
Key players & missing men

Lorient are missing Bandiougou Fadiga, but will look to Jean-Victor Makengo to provide a spark in midfield following his recent performances. Toulouse face a significant selection headache with first-choice goalkeeper Guillaume Restes unavailable, alongside Aaron Donnum, Abu Francis, and Rasmus Nicolaisen.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Lorient vs Toulouse and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Lorient1.8
2.0Toulouse
Season average total: 3.75 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Lorient winDrawToulouse win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Toulouse
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lorient
1639
Toulouse
1652

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

LorientLorient
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.40
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
ToulouseToulouse
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.83
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

LorientLorientToulouseToulouse
1.00Goals scored / game1.40
1.20Goals conceded / game1.80
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lorient 5 games, Toulouse 5 games.

LorientLorientToulouseToulouse
40%Games with a clean sheet0%
20%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Lorient
2–2
Toulouse
Toulouse
1–0
Lorient
Lorient
1–1
Toulouse
Lorient
1–2
Toulouse
Toulouse
1–1
Lorient
Form check

Their recent form.

Lorient
Lorient
Mixed bag at home
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Le MansvLorient
2–1
L
LorientvToulouse
2–2
D
LensvLorient
0–1
W
LorientvEstac Troyes
1–2
L
NicevLorient
0–0
D
Toulouse
Toulouse
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
ToulousevLe Havre
3–2
W
LorientvToulouse
2–2
D
ToulousevLille
0–1
L
Stade Brestois 29vToulouse
2–2
D
ToulousevLyon
0–2
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2