Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine

What our AI model sees

Season averages

2.3

–

0.3

Season average total: 2.67 goals

The market

Public / market price

1X2 probabilities

45%

45%

10%

Lyon winDrawNice win

Market call

Winner : Lyon

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Lyon

1732

Nice

1582

Lyon are the stronger side — 149 rating points clear of Nice.

Goals vs xG

In attackIn defence

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

Lyon

Goals scored

1.90

Expected (xG)

1.85

Scoring in line with their xG

Per game · last 10 matches

Nice

Goals scored

0.80

Expected (xG)

1.30

Wasteful — scoring below their xG

Per game · last 10 matches

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

OverallHome gamesAway games

Both teams across every game this season.

LyonNice

1.83Goals scored / game0.83

0.67Goals conceded / game1.17

How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Lyon 6 games, Nice 6 games.

LyonNice

50%Games with a clean sheet17%

17%Games they failed to score50%

Their recent form.

Lyon

Winning more than not lately

Last 5

3W · 2D · 0L

LyonvRennes

4–0

W

Paris FCvLyon

0–0

D

LyonvAuxerre

3–1

W

LyonvLe Havre

1–1

D

ToulousevLyon

0–2

W

Nice

Inconsistent on the road

Last 5

1W · 2D · 2L

NicevLille

2–1

W

AuxerrevNice

1–0

L

NicevLe Mans

1–1

D

Paris FCvNice

3–0

L

NicevLorient

0–0

D

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#

Team

P

W

D

L

GD

Pts

1

Monaco

6

4

2

0

+5

14

2

Lille

6

4

1

1

+5

13

3

Rennes

6

4

1

1

+2

13

4

Lyon

6

3

2

1

+7

11

5

Paris FC

6

3

2

1

+4

11

6

Paris Saint Germain

6

3

2

1

+3

11

7

Stade Brestois 29

6

2

2

2

+3

8

8

Lorient

6

2

2

2

+0

8

9

Nice

6

2

2

2

-2

8

10

Lens

6

2

1

3

+1

7

11

Strasbourg

6

2

1

3

-1

7

12

Angers

6

2

1

3

-3

7

13

Marseille

6

2

0

4

+1

6

14

Le Mans

6

1

3

2

-2

6

15

Toulouse

6

1

3

2

-2

6

16

Auxerre

6

2

0

4

-8

6

17

Estac Troyes

6

1

1

4

-9

4

18

Le Havre

6

0

2

4

-4

2