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Segunda División (Spain)
·
Malaga
Malaga
·LDDLL
vs
—
Almeria
Almeria
4th · 12 pts·LLWWW
The story

Malaga chase La Liga return in high-stakes playoff

A single point separated these two sides in the regular season as they now battle for a place in the promotion playoff final.

Match news & current form

Malaga finished the Segunda Division regular season in 4th place on 73 points, earning their spot in this promotion semi-final. They arrive in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches (W3, D2). Their most recent success was a disciplined 1-0 away win against Las Palmas, following a 1-1 draw at home, ensuring their progression to this stage.

Almeria secured 3rd place with 74 points, finishing just one point ahead of their hosts. While they won their most recent fixture 3-2 against Castellon, their overall momentum has been inconsistent, suffering two defeats in their last five outings, including a 3-1 loss to Sporting Gijon and a 2-1 home defeat to Las Palmas.

Head-to-head history

The rivalry is historically tight, with Malaga holding eight wins to Almeria's eleven across 27 total meetings. However, Almeria took the spoils in their most recent encounter in April 2026, winning a 3-2 thriller on home soil.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Malaga are looking to return to La Liga for the first time since the 2017-18 season.
  • Malaga are currently on a five-match unbeaten run (W3, D2).
  • Almeria have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five matches.
  • The last meeting between these sides produced five goals, though playoff tension often leads to more cautious starts.
Key players & missing men

Adri Embarba and Alex Munoz are the men in form for Almeria, both finding the net in their recent victory over Castellon. Malaga have no fresh injury concerns reported and will rely on the defensive solidity that saw them concede just once across two legs in the previous round.

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Every market on this match, priced and ranked.

Our model prices every market we cover on Malaga vs Almeria and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Malaga winDrawAlmeria win
Market call
Double chance : Malaga or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Malaga
1569
Almeria
1556

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MalagaMalagaAlmeriaAlmeria
—Goals scored / game1.67
—Goals conceded / game0.67
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Malaga — games, Almeria 6 games.

MalagaMalagaAlmeriaAlmeria
—Games with a clean sheet50%
—Games they failed to score33%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Almeria
1–2
Malaga
Malaga
0–0
Almeria
Almeria
3–2
Malaga
Malaga
2–1
Almeria
Almeria
1–2
Malaga
Form check

Their recent form.

Malaga
Malaga
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
GetafevMalaga
1–0
L
MalagavVillarreal
1–3
L
Celta VigovMalaga
1–1
D
MalagavLevante
0–0
D
Real MadridvMalaga
4–0
L
Almeria
Almeria
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
AlmeriavCelta de Vigo II
2–0
W
CordobavAlmeria
0–2
W
AlmeriavCadiz
3–2
W
SabadellvAlmeria
1–0
L
TenerifevAlmeria
1–0
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Segunda División (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
CastellónCastellón
6
5
1
0
+10
16
2
EibarEibar
6
5
0
1
+8
15
3
MallorcaMallorca
6
4
1
1
+6
13
4
AlmeriaAlmeria
6
4
0
2
+6
12
5
BurgosBurgos
6
3
2
1
+3
11
6
SabadellSabadell
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
LeganesLeganes
6
3
2
1
+1
11
8
GironaGirona
6
3
1
2
+4
10
9
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
6
3
1
2
+1
10
10
Las PalmasLas Palmas
6
3
1
2
+0
10
11
TenerifeTenerife
6
3
1
2
-1
10
12
Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II
6
2
2
2
+1
8
13
OviedoOviedo
6
2
2
2
+1
8
14
Granada CFGranada CF
6
2
2
2
+0
8
15
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
6
2
1
3
-3
7
16
CordobaCordoba
6
2
0
4
-4
6
17
EldenseEldense
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ValladolidValladolid
6
1
2
3
-5
5
19
CadizCadiz
6
0
3
3
-3
3
20
FC AndorraFC Andorra
6
1
0
5
-4
3
21
AlbaceteAlbacete
6
0
1
5
-6
1
22
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
6
0
1
5
-13
1