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Segunda División (Spain)
·
Malaga
Malaga
·LDDLL
vs
—
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
10th · 10 pts·WLDWL
The story

Malaga defend narrow lead in high-stakes playoff semi-final

Malaga and Las Palmas face off at La Rosaleda with a place in the Segunda Division playoff final at stake following the hosts' 1-0 first-leg victory.

Match news & current form

Malaga enter the second leg in formidable form, having secured five wins from their last six matches to finish fourth in the regular season. David Larrubia’s second-half strike in the first leg has given the White and Sky Blues a slender advantage as they seek a return to the top flight for the first time since 2018.

Las Palmas finished the campaign level on 73 points with their hosts but occupy the fifth seed. After being relegated from La Liga last season, the 'Pio Pio' are fighting for an immediate return but must rediscover their scoring touch after failing to find the net in the opening leg at home.

Head-to-head history

Malaga have dominated this fixture recently, losing just twice to the Yellows since September 2018. However, Las Palmas can take confidence from a significant 4-0 victory at La Rosaleda in August 2022, proving they are capable of high-scoring away performances in this stadium.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Malaga have kept clean sheets in each of their last three meetings with Las Palmas.
  • The hosts have won four of their last five matches, including a 4-1 away victory at AD Ceuta FC.
  • Las Palmas have struggled for consistency, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their previous five outings.
  • Malaga have claimed victory in 50% of the last six league meetings between these two sides.
Key players & missing men

David Larrubia is the man of the moment for Malaga after his decisive goal in the first leg. Both squads appear to be at full strength for this crucial return fixture, with no fresh injuries reported from the first-leg encounter on Sunday.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Malaga vs Las Palmas and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Malaga winDrawLas Palmas win
Market call
Double chance : Malaga or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Malaga
1569
Las Palmas
1585

Evenly matched on rating.

The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MalagaMalagaLas PalmasLas Palmas
—Goals scored / game1.33
—Goals conceded / game1.33
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Malaga — games, Las Palmas 6 games.

MalagaMalagaLas PalmasLas Palmas
—Games with a clean sheet50%
—Games they failed to score17%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Malaga
1–1
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
0–1
Malaga
Malaga
2–0
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
0–1
Malaga
Las Palmas
2–2
Malaga
Form check

Their recent form.

Malaga
Malaga
Struggling for results
Last 5
0W · 2D · 3L
GetafevMalaga
1–0
L
MalagavVillarreal
1–3
L
Celta VigovMalaga
1–1
D
MalagavLevante
0–0
D
Real MadridvMalaga
4–0
L
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
Inconsistent on the road
Last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Las PalmasvBurgos
1–2
L
CadizvLas Palmas
0–1
W
Las PalmasvLeganes
0–0
D
GironavLas Palmas
5–2
L
AD Ceuta FCvLas Palmas
0–2
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Segunda División (Spain) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
CastellónCastellón
6
5
1
0
+10
16
2
EibarEibar
6
5
0
1
+8
15
3
MallorcaMallorca
6
4
1
1
+6
13
4
AlmeriaAlmeria
6
4
0
2
+6
12
5
BurgosBurgos
6
3
2
1
+3
11
6
SabadellSabadell
6
3
2
1
+2
11
7
LeganesLeganes
6
3
2
1
+1
11
8
GironaGirona
6
3
1
2
+4
10
9
Sporting GijonSporting Gijon
6
3
1
2
+1
10
10
Las PalmasLas Palmas
6
3
1
2
+0
10
11
TenerifeTenerife
6
3
1
2
-1
10
12
Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II
6
2
2
2
+1
8
13
OviedoOviedo
6
2
2
2
+1
8
14
Granada CFGranada CF
6
2
2
2
+0
8
15
Celta de Vigo IICelta de Vigo II
6
2
1
3
-3
7
16
CordobaCordoba
6
2
0
4
-4
6
17
EldenseEldense
6
1
2
3
-4
5
18
ValladolidValladolid
6
1
2
3
-5
5
19
CadizCadiz
6
0
3
3
-3
3
20
FC AndorraFC Andorra
6
1
0
5
-4
3
21
AlbaceteAlbacete
6
0
1
5
-6
1
22
AD Ceuta FCAD Ceuta FC
6
0
1
5
-13
1