Winlytics.AI
Full time
Ligue 1 (France)
·
Marseille
Marseille
17th · 3 pts·WLLLL
vs
—
Paris FC
Paris FC
3rd · 11 pts
The story

Marseille chase home consistency as Paris FC eye history

Bruno Génésio’s Marseille look to reclaim their European footing against a Paris FC side aiming for their first-ever top-flight victory at the Stade Velodrome.

Match news & current form

Marseille sit 8th on 3 points, just one point off the European places following a mixed start. After a dominant 4-0 thrashing of Strasbourg in their home opener, Bruno Génésio’s side suffered a setback last time out with a 2-0 defeat at Monaco. The Olympians are now desperate to secure back-to-back home wins to keep pace with the top four.

Paris FC occupy 4th place with 4 points and remain unbeaten under Liam Rosenior. Following a goalless draw with Troyes, they found their rhythm last weekend in a 3-0 victory over Nice. Rosenior, the former Chelsea and Strasbourg boss, has yet to concede a goal this season and could lead the club to three consecutive top-flight clean sheets for the first time since their Ligue 2 days in 2024.

Head-to-head history

Paris FC have never won away at Marseille, with their best result at the Velodrome being a 90th-minute equaliser to draw 1-1 back in 1978. However, recent encounters have been explosive; the two meetings last season produced 11 goals, including a 5-2 victory for Marseille at home and a 2-2 draw in the capital.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Marseille are looking to avoid going goalless in successive league matches for the first time in 2026.
  • Paris FC and Monaco are the only two teams yet to concede a goal in Ligue 1 this season.
  • A result for Paris FC would mark the first time they have started a league campaign unbeaten in three games since 2024-25.
  • Marseille can keep consecutive clean sheets at the Stade Velodrome for the first time this calendar year.
  • Bruno Génésio holds a perfect managerial record against Paris FC, winning both of his previous encounters.
Key players & missing men

Marseille's midfield depth is tested following injuries to Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi, both of whom were forced off against Monaco. Paris FC travel with a significantly depleted squad; Liam Rosenior is missing J. Ikone, L. Koleosho, N. Sangui, E. Mbemba, and Otavio, which may force a reshuffle of his defensive unit.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Marseille1.7
–
1.6Paris FC
Season average total: 3.25 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
45%
45%
10%
Marseille winDrawParis FC win
Market call
Double chance : Marseille or Draw
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Marseille
1717
Paris FC
1629

Marseille are the stronger side — 87 rating points clear of Paris FC.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

MarseilleMarseille
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.99
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
Paris FCParis FC
Goals scored
1.80
Expected (xG)
1.93
Scoring in line with their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MarseilleMarseilleParis FCParis FC
1.40Goals scored / game1.60
1.60Goals conceded / game0.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Marseille 5 games, Paris FC 5 games.

MarseilleMarseilleParis FCParis FC
20%Games with a clean sheet60%
40%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Marseille
2–3
Paris FC
Paris FC
2–2
Marseille
Marseille
5–2
Paris FC
Form check

Their recent form.

Marseille
Marseille
Losing form badly
Last 5
1W · 0D · 4L
MarseillevParis Saint Germain
1–2
L
RennesvMarseille
1–0
L
MarseillevParis FC
2–3
L
MonacovMarseille
2–0
L
MarseillevStrasbourg
4–0
W
Paris FC
Paris FC
Paris FC — recent form not recorded.
Last 5

No recent matches recorded.

League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2