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Ligue 1 (France)
·
Monaco
Monaco
1st · 13 pts·WWWDW
vs
Marseille
Marseille
17th · 3 pts·WLLLL
The story

Monaco and Marseille Clash in Early Season Title Test

Second-placed Marseille travel to the Stade Louis II looking to maintain their perfect start, while fifth-placed Monaco aim to extend a phenomenal six-game winning run in Ligue 1.

Match news & current form

Monaco enter this fixture as the division's form side, having won six consecutive league matches, including a 1-0 victory over Le Havre last weekend thanks to a goal from Eric Dier. Currently fifth and holding a continental spot, the Principality club have already claimed scalps against Lyon, Lens, and PSG during this hot streak.

Marseille sit second in the table after a dominant 4-0 opening weekend win over Strasbourg. Having scored four goals in their first fixture, they remain firmly in the early title race, trailing the leaders by only a single point. However, their away form has been patchy, with three losses in their last five matches on the road.

Head-to-head history

Monaco have turned the Stade Louis II into a fortress against these opponents, winning their last three home Ligue 1 meetings with Marseille. While Marseille secured a 1-0 win in December 2025, Monaco won the most recent encounter 2-1 in April 2026.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Monaco are chasing a seventh successive Ligue 1 victory.
  • Eric Dier has scored in both of Monaco's competitive matches so far this season.
  • Monaco have won four of their last six home matches across all competitions.
  • Marseille have suffered three defeats in their last six away fixtures.
Key players & missing men

Monaco will rely on Folarin Balogun to lead the line, with the striker having scored in five consecutive Ligue 1 matches. However, the hosts are dealing with a significant absentee list including Takumi Minamino, Mohammed Salisu, and Mason Holgate. Marseille face a major blow as leading scorer Mason Greenwood is unavailable due to both injury and a suspension for accumulated bookings. Amine Gouiri, who scored twice last week, will be expected to fill the void.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Monaco vs Marseille and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Monaco1.8
0.3Marseille
Season average total: 2.00 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Monaco winDrawMarseille win
Market call
Winner : Marseille
Goals forecast
Over 2.5 goals
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Monaco
1718
Marseille
1717

Evenly matched on rating.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

MonacoMonaco
Goals scored
1.80
Expected (xG)
1.28
Clinical — scoring above their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
MarseilleMarseille
Goals scored
1.20
Expected (xG)
1.99
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MonacoMonacoMarseilleMarseille
1.60Goals scored / game1.40
0.60Goals conceded / game1.60
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Monaco 5 games, Marseille 5 games.

MonacoMonacoMarseilleMarseille
40%Games with a clean sheet20%
0%Games they failed to score40%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Monaco
2–0
Marseille
Monaco
2–1
Marseille
Marseille
1–0
Monaco
Monaco
3–0
Marseille
Marseille
2–1
Monaco
Form check

Their recent form.

Monaco
Monaco
On a strong winning run
Last 5
4W · 1D · 0L
MonacovLens
2–1
W
StrasbourgvMonaco
1–1
D
Paris Saint GermainvMonaco
1–2
W
MonacovMarseille
2–0
W
Le HavrevMonaco
0–1
W
Marseille
Marseille
Losing form badly
Last 5
1W · 0D · 4L
MarseillevParis Saint Germain
1–2
L
RennesvMarseille
1–0
L
MarseillevParis FC
2–3
L
MonacovMarseille
2–0
L
MarseillevStrasbourg
4–0
W
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Ligue 1 (France) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
MonacoMonaco
5
4
1
0
+5
13
2
LyonLyon
5
3
2
0
+8
11
3
Paris FCParis FC
5
3
2
0
+5
11
4
LilleLille
5
3
1
1
+4
10
5
RennesRennes
5
3
1
1
-1
10
6
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
5
2
2
1
+1
8
7
AngersAngers
5
2
1
2
+1
7
8
StrasbourgStrasbourg
5
2
1
2
+0
7
9
Le MansLe Mans
5
1
3
1
+0
6
10
AuxerreAuxerre
5
2
0
3
-5
6
11
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
5
1
2
2
-1
5
12
LorientLorient
5
1
2
2
-1
5
13
ToulouseToulouse
5
1
2
2
-2
5
14
NiceNice
5
1
2
2
-3
5
15
LensLens
5
1
1
3
+0
4
16
Estac TroyesEstac Troyes
5
1
1
3
-7
4
17
MarseilleMarseille
5
1
0
4
-1
3
18
Le HavreLe Havre
5
0
2
3
-3
2