Winlytics.AI
Kicks off in 2d 18h
Serie A (Italy)
·
Monza
Monza
16th · 4 pts·LDLWL
vs
—
Cagliari
Cagliari
4th · 13 pts·LWWWD
The story

Monza host high-flying Cagliari at U-Power Stadium

In-form Cagliari travel to Monza looking to extend their positive momentum against hosts still finding their feet in the opening weeks of the Serie A campaign.

Match news & current form

Monza sit 16th with four points after six games following a slow start to the season. Manager Ivan Juric oversaw a 2-1 home victory over Sassuolo in their last outing, arresting a difficult run that included back-to-back 3-2 losses against Udinese and Lecce. They will be eager to build on that momentum to climb away from the lower reaches of the standings.

Cagliari have made a strong start to the campaign, sitting fourth on 13 points after six games. The Sardinian outfit held Juventus to a 1-1 draw last time out, stretching their unbeaten sequence after notable away victories over Atalanta (2-1) and Udinese (1-0).

Head-to-head history

Recent meetings heavily favour the visitors. Cagliari won both Serie A clashes in 2025, prevailing 2-1 away on 5 January before sealing a 3-0 home victory on 30 March. A third consecutive win over Monza across Serie A and Serie B would be achieved for only the second time in club history, having last done so between January 1960 and January 1963.

Hot stats & streaks
  • Cagliari hold a nine-point advantage over Monza after just six league rounds.
  • Cagliari have won the last two Serie A meetings against Monza by an aggregate score of 5-1.
  • Monza have suffered three defeats in their last five league matches.
  • Cagliari are unbeaten in four consecutive Serie A matches, taking 10 points from a possible 12.
Key players & missing men

Monza rely on forward Patrick Cutrone, who boasts 72 career goals and 20 assists, while Noel Tornqvist starts between the posts with no reported injuries for the home side. Cagliari will lean on forward M'Bala Nzola in attack, though they will be without Riyad Idrissi through absence.

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Our model prices every market we cover on Monza vs Cagliari and ranks them by the edge against the bookmakers’ price. Subscribers see the full board.

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Market cross-check

Our model vs the market’s price.

How the public market prices this match, shown next to our model. For context only — it never changes a signal.

Our engine
What our AI model sees
Season averages
Monza1.2
–
1.7Cagliari
Season average total: 2.83 goals
The market
Public / market price
1X2 probabilities
10%
45%
45%
Monza winDrawCagliari win
Market call
Double chance : Draw or Cagliari
Elo rating & xG

Strength rating and xG.

Elo is overall team strength. xG is the goals an average team would score from the same chances.

Overall strength (Club Elo)

One strength number built from every result a team has had. Higher means stronger.

Monza
1544
Cagliari
1594

Cagliari are the stronger side — 50 rating points clear of Monza.

Goals vs xG

xG = goals an average team would score from the same chances. Scoring well above xG means clinical finishing (or a hot streak).

MonzaMonza
Goals scored
1.50
Expected (xG)
1.87
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 6 matches
CagliariCagliari
Goals scored
1.00
Expected (xG)
1.39
Wasteful — scoring below their xG
Per game · last 10 matches
The scoring picture

Goals scored and conceded.

Per-game averages this season. Use the buttons to split the goals by venue.

Goals per game

Both teams across every game this season.

MonzaMonzaCagliariCagliari
1.50Goals scored / game1.00
2.50Goals conceded / game0.50
How reliable, all season

Whole season, home and away combined — Monza 6 games, Cagliari 6 games.

MonzaMonzaCagliariCagliari
0%Games with a clean sheet50%
0%Games they failed to score17%
Head-to-head

Past meetings.

Cagliari
3–0
Monza
Monza
1–2
Cagliari
Monza
1–0
Cagliari
Cagliari
1–1
Monza
Injuries & suspensions

Who’s out.

Cagliari
Riyad Idrissi
Out · Jumpers Knee
Form check

Their recent form.

Monza
Monza
Struggling for results
Last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
LaziovMonza
3–1
L
MonzavSassuolo
2–1
W
LeccevMonza
3–2
L
ParmavMonza
1–1
D
MonzavUdinese
2–3
L
Cagliari
Cagliari
Winning more than not lately
Last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
CagliarivJuventus
1–1
D
UdinesevCagliari
0–1
W
AtalantavCagliari
1–2
W
CagliarivLecce
1–0
W
CagliarivInter
0–1
L
League standings

Where they sit in the table.

Serie A (Italy) standings · both teams highlighted in context.

#
Team
P
W
D
L
GD
Pts
1
InterInter
6
5
1
0
+10
16
2
LazioLazio
6
5
1
0
+7
16
3
AS RomaAS Roma
6
4
2
0
+11
14
4
CagliariCagliari
6
4
1
1
+3
13
5
AC MilanAC Milan
6
3
3
0
+6
12
6
JuventusJuventus
6
3
2
1
+4
11
7
ComoComo
6
3
2
1
+3
11
8
NapoliNapoli
6
3
1
2
+4
10
9
FrosinoneFrosinone
6
3
1
2
+2
10
10
AtalantaAtalanta
6
3
0
3
+0
9
11
SassuoloSassuolo
6
2
2
2
+0
8
12
TorinoTorino
6
2
1
3
-2
7
13
LecceLecce
6
2
0
4
-6
6
14
BolognaBologna
6
1
2
3
-2
5
15
UdineseUdinese
6
1
1
4
-4
4
16
MonzaMonza
6
1
1
4
-6
4
17
GenoaGenoa
6
1
1
4
-6
4
18
ParmaParma
6
1
1
4
-6
4
19
FiorentinaFiorentina
6
1
1
4
-7
4
20
VeneziaVenezia
6
0
0
6
-11
0